Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis February 4, 2013 Forecast

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Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis February 4, 2013 Forecast

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis February 4, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas continued to gain trading at 3.362. Yesterday, the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration put out a typically obscure news release at exactly 10:30 a.m. about natural gas in storage volume. The government puts this information out every week, measuring natural gas stocks in underground storage in the United States. It’s little-noticed information by the general public, but it means a lot to energy traders because the new numbers immediately impact energy prices in the markets each time they are made public.

Chicago-based analysis firm Nanex noticed something unusual in trading of natural gas futures and ETFs—an explosion of trading just 400 milliseconds before the official announcement at 10:30 a.m. Nanex said that less than a second before the world knew the government’s information, someone sold about 250,000 futures in a series of transactions worth a total of about $4.6 million.

Natural gas futures may fall next week on speculation that the weather won’t be cold enough to reduce a supply glut of the heating fuel.

Eight of 14 analysts in a Bloomberg survey, or 57 percent, said futures will decline on the New York Mercantile Exchange through Feb. 8. Five, or 36 percent, predicted gas will rise and one said prices will stay the same. Last week, 54 percent of participants said gas would advance this week.

Above-normal temperatures in the central U.S. next week may give way to colder weather in the second half of the 11- to 15- day forecast, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. A drop in U.S. stockpiles last week fell short of analysts’ expectations after frigid weather swept through the East.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data February 1, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Feb. 01

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

PPI (QoQ) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

01:00

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Manufacturing PMI 

50.40

 

50.90 

 

50.60 

 

 

 

01:45

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

52.30

 

52.10 

 

51.90 

 

 

 

08:30

 

CHF

 

 

SVME PMI 

52.5

 

50.5 

 

49.2 

  

 

08:45

 

EUR

 

 

Italian Manufacturing PMI 

47.80

 

47.60 

 

46.70 

 

 

 

08:50

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

42.9

 

42.9 

 

42.9 

 

 

 

08:55

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

49.8

 

48.8 

 

48.8 

 

 

 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

47.9

 

47.5 

 

47.5 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

50.8

 

51.0 

 

51.2 

  

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

2.2% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

11.7%

 

11.9% 

 

11.7% 

  

 

11:00

 

BRL

 

 

Brazilian Industrial Production (YoY) 

-3.6%

 

-4.7% 

 

-1.1% 

  

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

157K

 

160K 

 

196K 

  

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.9%

 

7.8% 

 

7.8% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4

 

34.5 

 

34.4 

  

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

166K

 

165K 

 

202K 

  

 

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Feb. 04

09:30

GBP

Construction PMI 

 

48.7 

 

09:30

EUR

Sentix Investor Confidence 

 

-7.0 

 

10:00

EUR

PPI (MoM) 

 

-0.2% 

 

15:00

USD

Factory Orders (MoM) 

1.0% 

 

 

15:00

USD

CB Employment Trends Index 

 

109.00 

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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