Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis July 30, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas dipped a bit today, to trade at 3.03. Gas prices are trading with a marginal loss of near 0.15 percent.

The US Energy department, storage level has been injected by 26 BCF lower than prior week. Demand has been increased by 1.16 percent, mostly contributed by Power sector consumption in the last week. Total supply has fallen by 1.2percent in the last week as rig counts have declined continuously. However, as per National Hurricane Center, there is no sign of tropical cyclone in North Atlantic region which may limit the gain in gas prices. As the month comes to a close investors are taking profits to cover losses in other commodities this month.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 27, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 27

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.6%

 

-0.7% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.2%

 

1.2% 

 

3.6% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.43

 

1.25 

 

1.15 

  

 

 

SEK

 

 

 

Swedish Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.40%

 

0.20% 

 

0.30% 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.5%

 

1.5% 

 

2.0% 

  

 

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR and GBP

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Jul 30

30th-31st

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

0.8%

-0.6%

 

7:00

EUR

Spanish Flash GDP q/q

 

-0.3%

 

8:30

GBP

Net Lending to Individuals m/m

 

1.3B

 

10:00

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

 

42

 

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

 

-29

Jul 31

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

 

0.4%

 

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

 

7K

 

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

2.4%

 

9:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate

 

11.1%

Aug 1

1st-8th

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

1.0%

 

7:15

EUR

Spanish Manufacturing PMI

 

41.1

 

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

 

44.6

 

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

 

48.6

Aug 2

7:00

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change

 

-98.9K

 

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

 

6.2%

 

7:30

CHF

SVME PMI

 

48.1

 

8:30

GBP

Construction PMI

 

48.2

 

11:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

 

375B

 

11:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

 

11:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

0.75%

 

12:30

EUR

ECB Press Conference

  

Aug 3

8:30

GBP

Services PMI

 

51.3

 

9:00

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

 

0.6%

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 30  09:10  Italy  

Jul 30  10:00  Belgium

Jul 31  00:30  Japan

Jul 31  09:30  Belgium

Aug 01  09:30  Germany

Aug 01  10:00  Norway

Aug 01  13:00  US

Aug 02  08:30  Spain

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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miriam assai

so should i be worried if i bought nature gas for 3.056?is it any chance that it will increase ‘until next week?

FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

that’s a bit high, but there is a good chance that you will be ok, as long as hot weather continues. Look for information on the Japanese export request also. When that is approved NG should pick up some stead. You did not mention what month you purchased. Monday and Tuesday might be ok… Investors will be booking profits to end the month.