Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 1, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 3.251 a bit lower today after surging by more than 40 cents this week as investors paused to weigh the latest gains against the latest weather outlooks. 
Natural gas for November delivery fell 2.8 cents, or 0.9%, to recently trade at $3.269 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as high as $3.317/MMBtu earlier in the session.  Gas prices paused following strong gains over the past weeks that have pushed futures to the highest level since December. Forecasts have called for cooler-than-normal weather across much of the U.S., which should raise gas-fired heating demand. But after the latest rally, some investors are concerned that futures have risen too quickly in anticipation of cold weather.

Forecaster WSI Energycast said Friday that most of the U.S. will see cooler-than-normal temperatures over the next 11-to-15 days, with models predicting colder weather than forecast earlier this week. 
The autumn months are typically a period of low natural-gas demand, as mild temperatures prompt homes and businesses to shut off their air conditioning. 
In this so-called shoulder season, natural-gas injections into U.S. storage rise until cold weather forces consumers to turn on their heating. More than half of U.S. homes are heated with natural gas, and many more use electric heat powered by gas-fired utilities. 

On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said stockpiles rose by 80 billion cubic feet, more than the five-year average build for this time of year. But the threat of colder weather trumped concerns about rising stockpiles. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 28, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 28

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.2%

 

4.3% 

 

4.3% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.4%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.3%

 

-0.5% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

1.8%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.0%

 

0.0% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

0.4%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.4% 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.67

 

1.57 

 

1.59 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.4% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.1% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

GDP (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.5% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Chicago PMI 

49.7

 

53.0 

 

53.0 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

78.3

 

79.0 

 

79.2 

 

 

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 01

08:15

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY) 

5.0%

3.2%

 

08:30

CHF

SVME PMI 

47.0

46.7

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

49.8

49.6

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 01 10:00 Norway 

Oct 02 09:15 Austria 

Oct 02 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 02 09:30 UK 

Oct 02 14:30 UK 

Oct 03 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 03 10:00 Norway 

Oct 04 08:30 Spain 

Oct 04 08:50 France 

Oct 04 15:00 US 

Oct 05 15:30 Italy 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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