Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 12, 2012 Forecast

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Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 12, 2012 Forecast

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 12, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas followed the commodities pack upwards today, to trade at 3.49 adding 0.015.

Today’s fundamental remains unchanged which may support gas prices to recover from yesterday’s fall and may continue the upside movement in today’s session. The US Energy Department, storage level is likely to increase by 79 BCF in the last week, higher than prior week. This may indicate anticipation of more demand incoming winter is creating higher storage level which may support gas prices to remain on higher side. On the other side, concern of mild weather forecast may lead to lower consumption in eastern region and ultimately weigh on gas prices. The National Hurricane Center reports that there is no major cyclone near to Gulf region which is also easing supply disturbances.

Today’s inventory report stated: Working gas in storage was 3,725 Bcf as of Friday, October 5, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 72 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 236 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 269 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,456 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 67 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 42 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 160 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,047 Bcf after a net injection of 27 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 42 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 3 Bcf. At 3,725 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 11, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 11

 

JPY

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Employment Change 

14.5K

3.8K 

-9.1K 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.4%

5.3% 

5.1% 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

2.75%

2.75% 

3.00% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.0% 

0.4% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0% 

2.1% 

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-18.1B

 

-15.6B 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

0.1% 

0.7% 

 

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian CPI (YoY) 

6.6%

6.4% 

6.0% 

 

 

SEK

 

 

Swedish CPI (YoY) 

0.4%

0.7% 

0.7% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

ECB Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7% 

1.1% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-1.3B

-2.0B 

-2.5B 

 

 

USD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-44.2B

-44.0B 

-42.5B 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

339K

370K 

369K 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3273K

3275K 

3288K 

 

WEEKLY

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 12

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.4% 

0.6% 

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.2% 

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

0.8% 

1.7% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

77.9 

78.3 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 12 09:30 Germany 

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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