Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

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Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 3.461 dropping 25pips. Gas prices trended lower during the initial morning hours and registered a lower low in the process. Some traders indicated that yesterday’s decline seemed to come from an active long-liquidation trade after last week’s push into a new high for 2012. While a measure of support for the natural gas market comes from an above normal amount of offline US nuclear capacity, moderating weather forecasts calling for above normal temperatures in the Northeast appears to be weighing on prices. Overall markets are predicting lower demand, but the higher prices were also threatening producers who will turn to other sources of energy, once NG is priced out of the markets. NG remains in demand close to the 3.00 price level, but much higher, the demand tumbles.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 16

01:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

 

2.1%

 

2.1% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.2%

 

2.5% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.1%

 

1.9% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (YoY) 

-1.2%

 

-0.8%

 

1.1% 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.7%

 

2.7% 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-11.5

 

-15.0

 

-18.2 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-1.4

 

-1.1

 

-3.8 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

 

1.6%

 

1.5% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.5%

 

0.6% 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

6.90B

 

8.72B

 

6.67B 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

1.50%

 

1.00%

 

-0.80% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

1.9%

 

1.7% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

2.0%

 

1.9% 

 

14:00

 

USD

 

 

 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

90.0B

 

45.3B

 

67.2B 

 

14:15

 

USD

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.2% 

 

-1.4% 

 

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 17

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

 

1.5%

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

 

-15.0K

Oct. 18

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

-0.2%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.1%

2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain           

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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