Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 19, 2012 Forecast

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Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 19, 2012 Forecast

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 19, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas continues to hover in a fairly tight range between 3.40 and 3.47 trading at this writing at 3.459. There is a fine balancing act between price and demand. NG is used as a secondary and backup for energy producers, but when it becomes priced higher than other sources, producers change quickly. Natural Gas is in the most demand by producers close to the 3.00 price.

Today’s inventory report stated: Working gas in storage was 3,776 Bcf as of Friday, October 12, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 51 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 181 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 249 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,527 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 51 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 24 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 155 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,071 Bcf after a net injection of 19 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 44 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 8 Bcf. At 3,776 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

Inventory was a bit higher than expected.  We should see prices begin to dip at the very end of the day and into tomorrow but not much action is expected.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 18, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 18

 

AUD

 

 

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 

-2.00

 

 

 

-2.00 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.5%

 

20.2% 

 

20.2% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese GDP (YoY) 

7.4%

 

7.4% 

 

7.6% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.2%

 

9.0% 

 

8.9% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

14.2%

 

13.2% 

 

13.2% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.1% 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.5%

 

2.1% 

 

2.5% 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction 

5.458%

 

 

 

5.666% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

388K

 

365K 

 

342K 

  

 

 

CAD

 

 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.7% 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3252K

 

3275K 

 

3281K 

  

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 19 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.73M 

4.82M 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 21 10:30 Portugal 

Oct 22 09:10 Norway 

Oct 23 08:30 Spain 

Oct 23 14:30 UK 

Oct 23 17:00 US 

Oct 24 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 24 09:30 Germany 

Oct 24 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 24 15:30 Italy  

Oct 24 16:30 US 

Oct 25 00:30 Japan 

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 25 15:30 Italy  

Oct 25 17:00 US 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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