Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 22, 2012 Forecast

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Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 22, 2012 Forecast

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 22, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading up 33pts at 3.619.  Activity in international markets are set to rebound in the current quarter, despite recent signs from industry data that global oilfield activity could be slowing because of uncertainty about the world economy. The latest count of active rigs outside North America, as measured by Baker, is up just 6 percent this year at 1,254, and the company now expects the full-year average to be only 3 percent higher than in 2011.

A steady upward trend in international pricing has continued in the third quarter, and analysts maintained a forecast for 10 percent growth in international activity for this year.

NG prices were slightly higher, pausing after gains in the previous session as traders gauge forecasts for colder weather. The rise follows a 3.4% surge in the previous session. Analysts pointed to cooler temperatures forecast for the next two weeks as a sign that gas-fired heating demand is set to increase. 
AccuWeather said Friday that a “sizeable pattern shift” will lead to a sharp cooling across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. during the next two weeks.  Over the past two days, weather forecasts have shown a shift towards colder-than-normal weather heading into November. The threat of low temperatures trumped weekly government data Thursday that showed U.S. stockpiles rose by more than analysts were expecting. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 19

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.2%

 

1.0% 

 

1.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

4.75M

 

4.75M 

 

4.83M 

   

 

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 24

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

 

42.7 

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

 

47.4 

 

09:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

101.0 

101.4 

 

09:00

EUR

German Current Assessment 

 

110.3 

 

09:00

EUR

German Business Expectations 

 

93.2 

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

 

-8 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 22 09:10 Norway 

Oct 23 08:30 Spain 

Oct 23 14:30 UK 

Oct 23 17:00 US 

Oct 24 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 24 09:30 Germany 

Oct 24 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 24 15:30 Italy  

Oct 24 16:30 US 

Oct 25 00:30 Japan 

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 25 15:30 Italy  

Oct 25 17:00 US 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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