Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 26, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas dipped a few cents to trade at 3.406 today. Today’s EIA inventory stated: Working gas in storage was 3,843 Bcf as of Friday, October 19, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 67 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 153 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 251 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,592 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 44 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 28 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 158 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,096 Bcf after a net injection of 28 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 49 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 11 Bcf. At 3,843 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range. This report came in exactly as market expectations and had little effect on prices.

Accuweather had no change to the forecast, as mild seasonable weather is expected over the next weeks and no storms are brewing in the gulf region. Natural Gas just sat tight today.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 25, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 25

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian Retail Sales (YoY) 

-2.40%

 

-2.20% 

 

-2.60% 

 

 

SEK

 

 

Swedish Interest Rate Decision 

1.25%

 

1.25% 

 

1.25% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.0%

 

0.6% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

0.0%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

BRL

 

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

5.4%

 

5.3% 

 

5.3% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

2.0%

 

0.8% 

 

-2.1% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

9.9%

 

7.1% 

 

-13.1% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

369K

 

370K 

 

392K 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3254K

 

3255K 

 

3256K 

 

 

MXN

 

 

Mexican Trade Balance 

0.234B

 

-1.318B 

 

-0.979B 

 

 

USD

 

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

2.1% 

 

-2.6% 

  

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 26 

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9 

5.9 

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.63 

1.67 

 

13:30

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

1.9% 

1.3% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

83.0 

83.1 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

WEEKLY

 

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