Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 5, 2012 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
Natural Gas is trading at 3.393 remaining strong, on hopes of cooling temperatures and the need for winter heating. Also today’s EIA inventory, showed a net increase (shown below) but the increase was less than expected.
With the possibility of monetary stimulus in Japan, as the BoJ concludes its two day meeting NG is strong as Japan is one of the largest importers of Natural Gas.
Today’s inventory report stated:
Working gas in storage was 3,653 Bcf as of Friday, September 28, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 77 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 272 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 281 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,372 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 70 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 42 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 163 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,017 Bcf after a net injection of 27 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 47 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 8 Bcf. At 3,653 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data October 4, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
Oct. 04 |
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) |
6.4% |
|
4.7% |
|
-21.2% |
|
|
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
0.4% |
|
-0.8% |
|
|
GBP |
Halifax House Price Index (MoM) |
-0.4% |
|
0.2% |
|
-0.4% |
|
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
|
0.50% |
|
0.50% |
|
|
GBP |
BOE QE Total |
375B |
|
375B |
|
375B |
|
|
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.75% |
|
0.75% |
|
0.75% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
367K |
|
370K |
|
363K |
|
|
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3281K |
|
3271K |
|
3281K |
|
|
CAD |
Ivey PMI |
60.4 |
|
59.0 |
|
62.5 |
WEEKLY
-
Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time) -
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Oct. 05 |
10:00 |
EUR |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
-0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
110K |
96K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
34.4 |
34.4 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
125K |
103K |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Oct 05 15:30 Italy
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