Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis September 21, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
Natural Gas is trading at 2.808 adding 0.045 in today’s session.
Today’s EIA inventory showed an increase in stocks but not as much as traders had expected, which help push up prices.
Working gas in storage was 3,496 Bcf as of Friday, September 14, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 67 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 320 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 278 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,218 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 76 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 44 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 150 Bcf above the 5-year average of 974 Bcf after a net injection of 20 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 52 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 3 Bcf. At 3,496 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.
The largest LNG consumer Japan is likely to increase its LNG import by more than 15 percent in 2013, which may support gas futures prices to trade on higher side. Expectation of rising space cooling demand may keep gas prices high for today’s session. MDA Earth Sat, another leading weather forecaster, said the 6 to 10-day forecast period would see cooler temperatures and characterized the forecast for the 11- to 15-day period as “a bit cooler than expected as well
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data September 20, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 20 |
|
JPY |
|
|
Trade Balance |
-0.47T |
|
-0.37T |
|
-0.37T |
||
|
|
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
47.80 |
|
|
|
47.60 |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French Manufacturing PMI |
42.6 |
|
46.4 |
|
46.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Manufacturing PMI |
47.3 |
|
45.3 |
|
44.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Manufacturing PMI |
46.0 |
|
45.4 |
|
45.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.2% |
|
-0.4% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Retail Sales (YoY) |
2.7% |
|
2.7% |
|
2.3% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
-8 |
|
-15 |
|
-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
382K |
|
375K |
|
385K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3272K |
|
3300K |
|
3304K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
-1.9 |
|
-4.0 |
|
-7.1 |
WEEKLY
-
Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time) -
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
There are no top tier eco data releases due in Europe or the US on the 21st.
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 21 15:30 Italy
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AUD/USD Forecast June 20, 2013, Technical Analysis
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