Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis September 28, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas continues to climb trading at 3.293. As per National Hurricane Center, tropical storm Miriam has reached category 2 level of Hurricane near to PADD IV region accounts for more gas production in US. There is another 40 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation near to PADD V region, which may create some concern of supply disturbances and may add some points on higher side. MDA Earth Sat, another leading weather forecaster, said the 6 to 10-day forecast period would see cooler temperatures. Thus, speculation of rising demand for space heating purpose may support gas prices to trade on higher side

Today’s EIA inventory stated:

Working gas in storage was 3,576 Bcf as of Friday, September 21, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 80 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 296 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 282 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,294 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 75 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 46 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 159 Bcf above the 5-year average of 994 Bcf after a net injection of 29 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 48 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 5 Bcf. At 3,576 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

Markets were expecting an increase by 78 BCF, which is lower than last year injection at the same time. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 27, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 27

 

DKK

 

 

Danish Unemployment Rate 

4.70%

 

4.70% 

 

4.70% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Rate 

6.8%

 

6.8% 

 

6.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Change 

9K

 

10K 

 

11K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

0.9%

 

-1.5% 

 

-1.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Current Account 

-20.8B

 

-12.4B 

 

-15.4B 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.4%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

5.24%

 

 

 

5.82% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-1.6%

 

0.3% 

 

-1.3% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-13.2%

 

-5.0% 

 

3.3% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

359K

 

378K 

 

385K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.3%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3271K

 

3285K 

 

3275K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

-2.6%

 

-0.7% 

 

2.6% 

   

 

WEEKLY

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 28

06:30

EUR

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.0%

0.0%

 

07:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.1%

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.57

1.57

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

2.6%

 

13:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

0.0%

 

13:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.5%

0.4%

 

14:45

USD

Chicago PMI 

52.9

53.0

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

78.9

79.2

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 01 10:00 Norway 

Oct 02 09:15 Austria 

Oct 02 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 02 09:30 UK 

Oct 02 14:30 UK 

Oct 03 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 03 10:00 Norway 

Oct 04 08:30 Spain 

Oct 04 08:50 France 

Oct 04 15:00 US 

Oct 05 15:30 Italy 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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