Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis September 28, 2012 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
Natural Gas continues to climb trading at 3.293. As per National Hurricane Center, tropical storm Miriam has reached category 2 level of Hurricane near to PADD IV region accounts for more gas production in US. There is another 40 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation near to PADD V region, which may create some concern of supply disturbances and may add some points on higher side. MDA Earth Sat, another leading weather forecaster, said the 6 to 10-day forecast period would see cooler temperatures. Thus, speculation of rising demand for space heating purpose may support gas prices to trade on higher side
Today’s EIA inventory stated:
Working gas in storage was 3,576 Bcf as of Friday, September 21, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 80 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 296 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 282 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,294 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 75 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 46 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 159 Bcf above the 5-year average of 994 Bcf after a net injection of 29 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 48 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 5 Bcf. At 3,576 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.
Markets were expecting an increase by 78 BCF, which is lower than last year injection at the same time.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data September 27, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 27 |
|
DKK |
|
|
Danish Unemployment Rate |
4.70% |
|
4.70% |
|
4.70% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Unemployment Rate |
6.8% |
|
6.8% |
|
6.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Unemployment Change |
9K |
|
10K |
|
11K |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Business Investment (QoQ) |
0.9% |
|
-1.5% |
|
-1.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Current Account |
-20.8B |
|
-12.4B |
|
-15.4B |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.4% |
|
-0.5% |
|
-0.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (YoY) |
-0.5% |
|
-0.5% |
|
-0.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
5.24% |
|
|
|
5.82% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-1.6% |
|
0.3% |
|
-1.3% |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-13.2% |
|
-5.0% |
|
3.3% |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
359K |
|
378K |
|
385K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
1.3% |
|
1.7% |
|
1.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3271K |
|
3285K |
|
3275K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
-2.6% |
|
-0.7% |
|
2.6% |
WEEKLY
-
Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time) -
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 28 |
06:30 |
EUR |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
07:45 |
EUR |
-0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
08:00 |
CHF |
1.57 |
1.57 |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
2.4% |
2.6% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.5% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
14:45 |
USD |
52.9 |
53.0 |
|
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
78.9 |
79.2 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Oct 01 10:00 Norway
Oct 02 09:15 Austria
Oct 02 09:30 Belgium
Oct 02 09:30 UK
Oct 02 14:30 UK
Oct 03 09:10 Sweden
Oct 03 10:00 Norway
Oct 04 08:30 Spain
Oct 04 08:50 France
Oct 04 15:00 US
Oct 05 15:30 Italy
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