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Natural Gas Fundamental Forecast – April 13, 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Apr 12, 2016, 09:57 UTC

Natural Gas recovered 20 points but remains near its short term bottom at 1.9320. Natural gas futures rallied early last week as forecasts for a late

Natural Gas Fundamental Forecast – April 13, 2016

Natural Gas recovered 20 points but remains near its short term bottom at 1.9320. Natural gas futures rallied early last week as forecasts for a late season cold snap in the eastern U.S. boosted demand prospects for the commodity and gave traders reason to bet that battered natural gas had finally bottomed. Still, this was a very optimistic interpretation with the natural gas market entering its seasonal lull with massive supplies following a disappointing peak demand season.

“Weather forecasts confirmed the coming arrival of very bearish weather to end April,” Houston research consultancy Gelber & Associates said in a note.

Natural gas is a fuel source used to heat more than half of U.S. homes, and cold temperatures are a bullish driver for demand.

Forecasts last week had the northeast and eastern seaboard temperatures remaining below normal as late as April 20, but the latest outlooks show that warmer-than-normal weather will finally begin to start creeping in at the middle of the month.

“Spring weather may finally be arriving as the weekend forecasts are overall bearish for natural gas,” analyst Dominick Chirichella of the Energy Management Institute said in a note. “It is now truly spring and natural gas heating-related demand will dissipate quickly.”

A mild U.S. winter and booming gas production have left U.S. supplies more than 50% higher than normal for this time of year.

Natural Gas Weekly Weather Outlook

April 7 – April 13: A strong Spring storm and associated cool blast will track across the eastern US today with showers and powerful thunderstorms into the warmer air and a wintry mix into the coldest air. This system will tap a heftier dose of frigid subfreezing temperatures tonight and Friday and then sweep it across the East through this weekend to bring a quick surge in nat gas demand. It remains mild over the West, although with increasing subtropical showers over California and the Southwest, which will trend cooler this weekend. A mild pattern is expected early next week before a weaker system tracks across the far northern US Wednesday. Overall, nat gas demand will be MODERATE-HIGH over the Great Lakes and NE, and then briefly SE otherwise MODERATE to Low elsewhere.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

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