Natural Gas Fundamental Forecast – February 5, 2016

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas took another fall, giving up 40 points as winter weather turned warmer and demand fell so did prices. Natural gas is trading at 1.998 ahead of the week EIA inventory due later in the session.  The updated weather models suggest that US weather would be warmer than normal for the next few weeks. It’s important to note that 50% of US households use natural gas for heating purposes. Mild winter weather would curb the heating needs and impact natural gas prices. In the third part of this series, we’ll provide a detailed weather update.

Secondly, the U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its weekly natural gas in storage report on February 4, 2016. The coldest period of the winter season is from December to January. However, the weather estimates are milder. So, we could see a less-than-expected natural gas withdrawal. The long-term record natural gas production and mild winter weather would continue to put pressure on natural gas prices. Read the next part of the series for the latest updates on the US natural gas inventory.

Natural Gas Weekly Weather Outlook

Feb 3-9th: A winter storm is currently tracking across the Midwest with a swath of snow ending. Ahead of the cold front over the east-central US, severe thunderstorms are expected with isolated tornadoes. Behind the cold front, overnight temperatures will drop into the single digits and teens with subfreezing temperatures pushing deep into the South. The eastern US will gradually begin to cool as the cold front gradually pushes through while fizzling Thursday. Over the weekend, a polar front will graze upper New England with light snow, while a milder weather system brings rain, snow, or ice to TX and across the SE. Finally, a Polar Outbreak will arrive early next week with much colder temperatures. Overall, nat gas demand will be MODERATE-HIGH.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)