Natural Gas Monthly Fundamental Forecast April 2013

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Natural Gas Monthly Fundamental Forecast April 2013

Natural Gas Monthly Fundamental Forecast April 2013

Outlook and Recommendation

Natural Gas  remained in the 4.00 price level after climbing to 4.12 earlier in the week as traders sold off to book profits leaving the commodity to close the month at 4.019. Both spot and futures prices reached 18-month record highs during this report week (Wednesday, March 20 – Wednesday, March 27). The Henry Hub spot price rose from $3.96 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $4.08 per MMBtu yesterday, its highest level since September 2011. Price changes were mixed, and mostly small, with the exception of large declines in the Northeast United States.

At the NYMEX, futures contracts made gains similar to the Henry Hub price. The April 2013 NYMEX natural gas contract expired Tuesday, March 26, just under $4 per MMBtu. The latest EIA inventory showed that:

Working gas in storage was 1,781 Bcf as of Friday, March 22, 2013, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 95 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 642 Bcf less than last year at this time and 61 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,720 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 41 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 73 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 30 Bcf above the 5-year average of 707 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 17 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 73 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 5 Bcf. At 1,781 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

Maximum: 4,120

Minimum: 3,408

Difference: 0.712

Average: 3,771

Rev. %: 15.25

According to U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) pipeline projects data, nearly 30 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas pipeline capacity in the United States is in some stage of proposed or planned development with scheduled completion dates through 2016. These data are based on the latest information available from company and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) statements as of December 2012. It includes both new pipelines, and expansions and lateral extensions to existing pipelines. It is uncertain whether all currently planned expansion projects will be completed, although they are more likely to be constructed the further along they are in the approval process.

About 39 percent or 11.5 Bcf/d of the planned capacity projects have received approval from FERC. Currently, only 10 percent of the planned additions are actively under construction, with more than half of those located in the Southwest. Combining all stages of project development, above 40 percent of all planned pipeline projects are located in the Northeast, which accounted for over half of all completed natural gas pipeline projects in 2012. Despite material gains in pipeline capacity additions and shale-driven natural gas production in the United States since 2005, the greater New York metropolitan area and especially New England markets still experience frequent constraints.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

natural gas BNS April

WEEKLY DATA

This Week in Petroleum

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Heating Oil & Propane Update (October – March)

Weekly Coal Production
Weekly NYMEX Coal Futures

Coal News & Markets

Natural Gas Weekly Update

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

Economic events for the month of April affecting EUR, CHF, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Apr 1

9:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

54.2

54.2

Apr 2

3:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

48.9

47.9

Apr 3

3:30

GBP

Construction PMI

47.7

46.8

 

7:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

203K

198K

 

9:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

55.9

56.0

Apr 4

3:30

GBP

Services PMI

51.4

51.8

 

6:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

375B

375B

   

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

 

6:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

0.75%

   

USD

Unemployment Claims

354K

357K

Apr 5

2:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

430.0B

 

7:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

201K

236K

   

USD

Trade Balance

-44.6B

-44.4B

Apr 8

20:30

CNY

CPI y/y

 

3.2%

Apr 9

2:15

CHF

CPI m/m

 

0.3%

 

3:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

-1.5%

Apr 12

7:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

 

1.0%

   

USD

PPI m/m

 

0.7%

   

USD

Retail Sales m/m

 

1.1%

 

8:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

78.6

Apr 16

3:30

GBP

CPI y/y

   
 

7:30

USD

Building Permits

   
   

USD

Core CPI m/m

   

Apr 17

3:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

   
 

4:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

   

Apr 18

3:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

   
 

7:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   
 

9:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

   

Apr 22

9:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

   
 

20:45

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI

   

Apr 23

2:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

   
 

2:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

   
 

9:00

USD

New Home Sales

   

Apr 24

3:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

   
 

7:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

   

Apr 25

3:30

GBP

Prelim GDP q/q

   
 

7:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   

Apr 26

7:30

USD

Advance GDP q/q

 

0.4%

Apr 29

9:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

   

Apr 30

9:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

   
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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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Vaughn Langendorf

Vorrei avere la possibilità di scrivere così come si fa!

 

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