Natural Gas Monthly Fundamental Forecast August 2012

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By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman
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Outlook and Recommendation

Natural Gas ended the month on a high note as electricity consumption in the US peaked on hot temperatures throughout the country. June was reported to be the hottest June in history and July followed in that path. With electricity consumption skyrocketing, the demand for gas also skyrockets as producers use NG for the excess capacity.

Highest: 3.276

Lowest: 2.720

Difference: 0.557

Average: 2.961

Change %: 14.13

Natural gas consumed for power generation (power burn) increased for the month by more than 5 percent.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Natural Gas Inventory (EIA)

Working gas in storage was 3,217 Bcf as of Friday, July 27, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 28 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 472 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 407 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,810 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 148 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 30 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 172 Bcf above the 5-year average of 941 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 6 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 87 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 4 Bcf. At 3,217 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range

Economic events for the month of August affecting USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Aug 1

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

122K

176K

 

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

50.4

49.7

 

18:15

USD

FOMC Statement

   

Aug 2

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

375K

353K

Aug 3

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

101K

80K

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

8.2%

 

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

52.2

52.1

 

WEEKLY

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