Outlook and Recommendation Natural Gas spent November looking for a bottom and remains weak as December begins with high stocks and warmer temperatures on
Natural Gas spent November looking for a bottom and remains weak as December begins with high stocks and warmer temperatures on the way. NG is at 2.237 moving into December. The average global temperature for 2015 is well ahead of last year, the current titleholder of warmest year. October provided a particularly large boost, with a temperature that was above average by more than any other single month in the past 135 years. By NASA’s reckoning, October was more than a full degree Celsius (nearly 2°F) above the average from 1951-1980, the first month that has ever happened.
The new analysis underscores what climate scientists have long been saying: The unabated accumulation of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is steadily raising the planet’s temperature. The CO2 levels that are currently rising above 400 parts per million are unlikely to drop below that mark for the foreseeable future — a stark difference from the 280 ppm that prevailed before the Industrial Revolution.
The slowing natural gas inventory and warm weather could support natural gas prices. The nearest resistance for natural gas is seen at $3 per MMBtu. Prices tested this mark in April 2015. In contrast, mild weather and oversupply concerns could drag natural gas prices lower. The nearest support for natural gas is seen at $2.60 per MMBtu. Prices hit this mark in June 2015.
The natural gas price chart suggests that natural gas prices could trade between $2.60 and $3 per MMBtu in the short term. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) forecasts that US natural gas prices could average around $2.85 per MMBtu in 2015. Natural gas prices could hit $3.50 per MMBtu by the end of 2015 and $4 per MMBtu by the end of 2016, according to estimates from Capital Economics.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
WEEKLY DATA
Major Economic Events That Will Affect The Markets In December
Cur. |
Event |
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Tuesday, December 1, 2015 |
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CNY |
Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
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CNY |
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
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AUD |
Interest Rate Decision (Dec) |
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AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
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EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
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EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
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GBP |
BoE Gov. Carney Speaks |
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GBP |
Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
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USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) |
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Wednesday, December 2, 2015 |
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AUD |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
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GBP |
Construction PMI (Nov) |
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EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Nov) |
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USD |
ADP Nonfarm |
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USD |
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks |
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Thursday, December 3, 2015 |
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GBP |
Services PMI (Nov) |
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EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
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EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
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USD |
Yellen Testifies |
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Friday, December 4, 2015 |
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AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) |
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USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) |
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USD |
Unemployment Rate |
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EUR |
ECB President Draghi |
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Tuesday, December 8, 2015 |
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CNY |
Trade Balance (Nov) |
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GBP |
Manufacturing Product |
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Wednesday, December 9, 2015 |
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CNY |
CPI (YoY) (Nov) |
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NZD |
Interest Rate Decision |
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Thursday, December 10, 2015 |
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AUD |
Employment Change |
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GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
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Friday, December 11, 2015 |
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USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
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USD |
PPI (MoM) (Nov) |
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USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) |
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Saturday, December 12, 2015 |
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CNY |
Industrial Production |
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Sunday, December 13, 2015 |
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JPY |
Tankan Large |
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JPY |
Tankan Large Non- |
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Tuesday, December 15, 2015 |
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GBP |
CPI (YoY) (Nov) |
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EUR |
German ZEW Economic |
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Wednesday, December 16, 2015 |
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EUR |
German Manufacturing |
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GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
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EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Nov) |
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USD |
Fed Interest Rate |
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NZD |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
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Thursday, December 17, 2015 |
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EUR |
German Ifo Business |
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GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) |
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Thursday, December 24, 2015 |
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All Day |
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Holiday |
Germany – Christmas Eve |
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Holiday |
United States – Christmas Eve – Early close at 13:30 |
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