Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here
Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Introduction: Natural gas is nevertheless a major commodity in its own right, which is used for everything from cooking food to heating houses during the winter. Natural Gas is growing much faster than either of its non-renewable fossil fuel competitors, oil and coal.

Do not miss the weekly U.S. gas inventories report. The figures are issued by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) every Thursday afternoon at 15:30 (released Friday at 15:30 if there was a U.S. bank holiday on Monday). Here’s a link to the latest EIA report. The main natural gas moving figure in there is the change in inventories from the previous week. When it comes to the gas inventories report, we’re talking about billions of cubic feet, Bcf for short.

When the actual change in inventories number is released, it is the deviation from the expected number that is really important. If the actual inventories figure shows a 24 Bcf rise when an 84 Bcf increase was expected, then that is actually positive for the price of natural gas. All else equal, the price of natural gas should rise after the release.

A barrel of oil has roughly 6 times the energy content of natural gas. If the fuels were perfect substitutes, oil prices would tend to be about 6 times natural gas prices. However, due to various market characteristics discussed briefly above and the ease of using oil, the price of oil has been following a pattern of 8-12 times that of natural gas. However that ratio has spiked dramatically since March 2009.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas continued to trade higher closing the week at 3.602 after hitting a recent high of 3.633. Tropical Storm Patty is helping to pressurize prices as it might threaten production this week in the gulf area. An early winter chill also is helping with prices as residential heating uses natural gas, an early or harsh winter could see additional consumption.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Oct 12, 2012

3.602

3.622

3.635

3.563

-0.54%

Oct 11, 2012

3.621

3.479

3.633

3.468

4.07%

Oct 10, 2012

3.479

3.478

3.513

3.432

0.04%

Oct 09, 2012

3.478

3.417

3.514

3.348

1.77%

Oct 08, 2012

3.417

3.394

3.430

3.329

0.66%

The weekly EIA report showed a continued increase in stocks but less than projected which gave the commodity a boost.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 8-12, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 08

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

0.3%

0.0%

 

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5%

-0.8%

1.2%

Oct. 09

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-15%

-20%

-18%

 

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5%

-0.5%

2.8%

 

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

-1.1%

-0.6%

3.1%

 

GBP

Trade Balance 

-9.8B

-8.5B

-7.3B

 

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-1.2%

-1.1%

-0.8%

 

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate 

0.8%

 

0.1%

Oct. 10

USD

10-Year Note Auction 

1.700%

 

1.764%

Oct. 11

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.0%

0.4%

 

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0%

2.1%

 

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

0.1%

0.7%

 

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7%

1.1%

 

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.2B

-44.0B

-42.5B

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

339K

370K

369K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3273K

3275K

3288K

Oct. 12

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

-0.4%

0.6%

 

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

 

USD

PPI (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7%

1.7%

 

USD

PPI (YoY) 

2.1%

1.8%

2.0%

 

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.3%

2.5%

2.5%

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

83.1

78.0

78.3

 

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

75.0B

42.0B

-191.0B

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 6.106 on Jan 07, 2010

Average: 3.836 over this period

Lowest: 1.903 on April 19, 2012

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 15

08:15

CHF

PPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

0.8%

 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-5.0

-10.4

Oct. 16

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

2.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

-0.1%

2.0%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

-0.8%

1.4%

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

2.7%

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-16.0

-18.2

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.5%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.6%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

1.7%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

1.9%

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

67.0B

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2%

-1.2%

Oct. 17

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

 

1.5%

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

 

-15.0K

 Oct. 18

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

-0.2%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.1%

2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 15 09:10 Slovakia 

Oct 15 10:00 Norway 

Oct 16 08:30 Spain 

Oct 16 09:10 Greece 

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain 

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US 

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.