Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas remained strong, but could not hold onto last weeks gain. The commodity opened the week at 3.353 and surged to a high of 3.486 and then midweek broke above the 3.50 level before the EIA injection reports. Natural Gas added stocks this week but at a lower rate than expected.

The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States climbed this week for the second time in three weeks despite relatively low gas prices that continue to squeeze profit margins in most dry gas drilling operations. The tick up in rig numbers from a 13-year low reached last week may have been spurred by expectations of further gas price gains as the peak-demand winter heating season approaches, traders said. The gas-directed rig count rose this week by two to 437, data from Houston oil services firm Baker Hughes showed. It was only the eighth time this year that the gas rig count has gained. The count is still down 53 percent since peaking at 936 last October.

Traders have been looking for signs that low gas prices might finally slow record output, but production is still running about 3 bcf per day above the same time last year. There are concerns that if gas prices move much higher producers could opt to hook up wells that have been drilled but not flowing because gas prices below $3 were unattractive. The EIA expects marketed gas production in 2012 to hit a record for a second straight year, climbing 4 percent from 2011 levels to 68.86 bcf per day.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 1-5 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 6.106 on Jan 07, 2010

Average: 3.836 over this period

Lowest: 1.903 on April 19, 2012

WEEKLY

• Natural Gas Weekly Update
  Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
• Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
  Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Oct 08 09:10 Norway 

Oct 08 15:30 Italy  

Oct 09 08:30 Holland 

Oct 09 09:30 UK 

Oct 09 14:30 UK 

Oct 09 17:00 US 

Oct 10 09:10 Italy  

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 10 09:30 Germany 

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss 

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 10 17:00 US 

Oct 11 09:10 Italy  

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 11 09:30 UK 

Oct 11 15:00 US 

Oct 11 17:00 US 

Oct 12 09:30 Germany 

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium