NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 13, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD is trading at 0.8100 exactly this morning. The NZD has weakened against a strenghtening USD and also on negative economics data from China. Retail sales plunged in the July report released by China yesterday, which has a direct affect on the kiwi exports to China.

New Zealand depends on China for a great deal of its exports.

Although the drop in retail sales has been more then made up by the speculation of monetary easing due to the overall negative data from all aspects of the Chinese economy. The PBoC is now rumored to be getting ready to announce a huge stimulus package.

The balance of data is due out throughout today.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 9 -10, 2012 actual v. forecast (it is important to note the Chinese data releases)

Aug. 09

 

AUD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

14.0K

 

10.0K 

 

-28.3K 

  

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.2%

 

5.3% 

 

5.3% 

  

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

 

1.7% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-2.9%

 

-2.5% 

 

-2.1% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.4%

 

20.5% 

 

20.4% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.2%

 

9.8% 

 

9.5% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.1%

 

13.7% 

 

13.7% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-10.1B

 

-8.6B 

 

-8.4B 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

208.5K

 

213.0K 

 

222.1K 

  

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-1.8B

 

-1.0B 

 

-0.9B 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-42.9B

 

-47.5B 

 

-48.0B 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

361K

 

370K 

 

367K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3332K

 

3280K 

 

3279K 

  

Aug. 10

 

PEN

 

 

 

Peruvian Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

CGPI (YoY) 

-2.1%

 

-1.6% 

 

-1.3% 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 13

13th-14th

NZD

REINZ HPI m/m

0.3%

 

22:45

NZD

Core Retail Sales q/q

-2.5%

 

23:50

JPY

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 
 

23:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity m/m

0.7%

Aug 14

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

-3

 

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

-0.6%

 

12:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

-0.4%

 

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

0.1%

 

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.5%

 

14:00

USD

Business Inventories m/m

0.3%

Aug 15

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

3.7%

 

1:30

AUD

Wage Price Index q/q

0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

 

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

7.4

 

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

55.0B

 

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

78.9%

 

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.4%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Aug 16

1:00

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

3.3%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-12.9

 

22:45

NZD

PPI Input q/q

0.3%

Aug 17

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 13  09:10  Italy

Aug 13  09:10  Norway

Aug 13  09:30  Germany

Aug 14  09:10  Greece 

Aug 14  09:10  Italy

Aug 14  09:30  Belgium

Aug 14  14:30  UK

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US

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