NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 15, 2012, Forecast

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By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD is trading at 0.8102 tumbled to a recent low against the dollar on negative news from China and Japan, two of NZ's most important trading partners.

As the USD gains some momentum and with the disappointing employment reports last week from NZ, the kiwi was unable to muster any strength.

If the PBoC offers some sort of stimulus we will see the kiwi as a major benefactor.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Aug. 14

 

GBP

 

 

 

RICS House Price Balance 

-24%

 

-23% 

 

-22% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.3% 

 

0.9% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

NAB Business Confidence 

4

 

 

 

-3 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) 

-0.8%

 

 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Trade Balance 

2.80B

 

 

 

2.70B 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Estonian Unemployment Rate (YoY) 

10.20%

 

 

 

11.50% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.0%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

INR

 

 

 

Indian WPI (YoY) 

 

 

7.37% 

 

7.25% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Finnish CPI (YoY) 

2.90%

 

 

 

2.80% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (YoY) 

0.5%

 

1.0% 

 

1.7% 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Aug 15

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

 

3.7%

 

1:30

AUD

Wage Price Index q/q

0.9%

0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

0.2%

 

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

6.7

7.4

 

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

63.5B

55.0B

 

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

79.3%

78.9%

 

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.5%

0.4%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-3.7M

Aug 16

1:00

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

 

3.3%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.77M

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

365K

361K

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-4.3

-12.9

 

22:45

NZD

PPI Input q/q

 

0.3%

Aug 17

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.5

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US

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