NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 16, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD is trading at a two week low, holding at 0.8052 after the US dollar surged late yesterday, on the release of a very positive retail sales report in the US.

On a light new day in a quiet month, traders were looking for a reason to trade. Poor showing in eurozone growth numbers offset by the positive data in the US allowed traders to move into USD.

The commodity currencies are still under the strain of poor eco data from China.

This week’s NZ Q2 retail trade survey and dairy auction have the potential to influence the NZD also. We see modest upside risks to the retail trade survey, but prices are likely to remain subdued at the dairy auction.  The impact of the US drought and higher feed costs are likely to be supportive for dairy prices over the year ahead.  But for the time being the market continues to digest relatively high levels of inventories from the bumper production over the past season.

The kiwi is still fighting against negative employment numbers last week

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 15

01:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

-2.50%

 

 

 

3.70% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ) 

1.0%

 

0.8% 

 

0.9% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Aug 16

1:00

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

 

3.3%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.77M

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

365K

361K

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-4.3

-12.9

 

22:45

NZD

PPI Input q/q

 

0.3%

Aug 17

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.5

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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