NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis August 20, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD is trading at 0.8096 down a few pips from yesterday. Worries over the Chinese recovery and the possibility of stimulus from the PBoC weight on the currency. After a disappointing jobs report last week, the economy seems fragile and very sensitive to regional crisis.

Hopes of higher prices on dairy goods favor the currency as the drought in the US may push prices up a bit.

The New Zealand dollar rose after German Chancellor Angela Merkel provided a boost to the eurozone, signaling her conditional support to the European Central Bank’s bond buying program.

Merkel reiterated her commitment to working with the ECB to resolve the region’s debt crisis and to help reduce the borrowing costs of indebted nations, in her first public comment on the turmoil in over a month.

Merkel is supposedly showing her allegiance to the ECB but it’s what it doesn’t say, the details – the bonds are under conditions which Spain and Greece don’t like.

Spain will apply for aid at a meeting of finance ministers in September, allowing the ECB to buy Spanish government debt in the secondary market once approval is won, Bloomberg reported.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 16-17, 2012 actual v. forecast (No Asian releases on the 17th)

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 16

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.3% 

 

3.2% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.8% 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.8%

 

1.4% 

 

2.6% 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

 

2.4% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.9% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Building Permits 

0.812M

 

0.770M 

 

0.760M 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

-7.89B

 

10.67B 

 

26.11B 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.746M

 

0.757M 

 

0.754M 

  

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-0.40%

 

0.40% 

 

-0.40% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

366K

 

365K 

 

364K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3305K

 

3300K 

 

3336K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

-7.1

 

-5.0 

 

-12.9 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 21

1:30

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 
 

3:00

NZD

Inflation Expectations q/q

2.4%

 

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance

-0.30T

Aug 22

0:30

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

0.8%

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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