NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 10, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

00:30     AUD       RBA Monetary Policy Statement

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) quarterly monetary policy statement provides valuable insight into the bank’s perspective on economic conditions and inflation                                                                                             

 13:30    USD       Trade Balance                                                   -48.4B                   -47.8B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.                           

 14:55    USD       Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index     74.3                       75.0

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.                          

 17:30    USD       Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy.

His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.                                                                                                

19:00     USD       Federal Budget Balance                                                -65.2B                   -86.0B  

The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit. 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.           

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis February 10, 2012, Forecast

 Analysis and Recommendation: (Close of  the Asian session )

The NZD/USD  weakened against its U.S. counterpart early Thursday after China released inflation figures that came in higher than expected at 4.5%.

In this mornings trading,   the kiwi hit 0.8338, down 0.17% and up from a session low of 0.8322 and off from a high of 0.8354.

A meeting of Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and top party leaders ended early Thursday without an agreement on austerity measures needed to receive the nation’s next tranche of aid, according to reports. While most of the provisions were agreed by the ruling and opposition leaders, details over adjustment to pensions remained as a sole sticking point. These worries have given some additional strength the USD, after falling yesterday on news of an agreement.

In New Zealand, the unemployment rate hit an adjusted 6.3% in the fourth quarter of last year compared to 6.6% in the preceding quarter.

Wednesday’s economic reports ( actual )

Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales

Feb 10  11:00  Belgium  OLO auction