NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 -Forecast

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Published: Nov 26, 2015, 04:04 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD added 5 points after the release of monthly trade figures for October. The strong US dollar limited gains as the

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD added 5 points after the release of monthly trade figures for October. The strong US dollar limited gains as the NZD moved to trade at 0.6584. The kiwi was little changed in the absence of major drivers and as US economic data broadly met expectations ahead of the country’s Thanksgiving public holiday. Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said the import side remained lower, despite a falling dollar. “You’ve still got a lot of global downward pressure on a lot of traded items and in particular in terms of a lot of the stuff that New Zealand buys,” he said.

The deficit for the 12 months to October widened slightly to $3.2 billion. The figures also showed that China has retaken the top spot as the country’s biggest trade partner.

New Zealand recorded a trade deficit of almost $1bn in October, close to market expectations. The trade balance is typically at its lowest around this time of year; in seasonally adjusted terms, the deficit widened slightly to $445m.

Exports were little changed from September. Lower prices for dairy and wood exports were partly offset by a rise in volumes, and there were declines in meat, seafood and machinery. Exports of fruit and wine rose for the month.

Imports were held up by a price-driven jump in petroleum imports. Excluding petroleum, the value of imports was down 2%. There were no large plane imports in October, but these are likely to feature in the import bill over coming months.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	United States – Thanksgiving Day
NZD	Trade Balance (MoM) (Oct)	-963M	-937M	-1,222M
NZD	Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct)	-3,240M	-3,370M	-3,200M
AUD	Private New Capital Expenditure	-9.2%	-3.0%	-4.4%
EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate		9.2	9.4

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 27, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	United States – Day following Thanksgiving – Early close at 13:30
JPY	Household Spending (MoM) (Oct)		1.1%	-1.3%
JPY	Household Spending (YoY) (Oct)		0.1%	-0.4%
JPY	Jobs/applications ratio (Oct)		1.24	1.24
JPY	National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)		-0.1%	-0.1%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)		-0.1%	-0.2%
GBP	Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Nov)		0.5%	0.6%
GBP	Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Nov)		4.2%	3.9%
GBP	Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3)		1.5%	1.6%
GBP	GDP (YoY) (Q3)		2.3%	2.3%
GBP	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		0.5%	0.5%