NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 26, 2012 Forecast

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NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 26, 2012 Forecast

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 26, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD climbed in morning trade to 0.8220 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates and policy. The US Federal Reserve reiterated that the US economy is expanding at a moderate pace in a statement released after its two day meeting. Fed policy makers said US “economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months”. However, the path forward isn’t yet clear. “Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated.”

Stronger data from China helped support the kiwi, yesterday the Chinese Flash PMI reported at 49.1 well above previous months and above expectations but below the 50 number signaling expansion.

RNZ governor Wheeler was recently appointed to this position and this was his first monetary decision and statement. New Zealand is going through “modest” economic growth, with the Canterbury rebuild boosting the construction sector and housing market activity increasing as expected, Wheeler said.

Those gains were being hampered by fiscal consolidation and a strong New Zealand dollar “undermining export earnings and encouraging substitution toward imported goods and services,” he said.

Wheeler was more upbeat about the global outlook, saying the risks appear “more balanced” on improving market sentiment. Still, the global economy remains fragile with “further recovery dependent on policy implementation.”

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 25, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 25

 

JPY

 

 

CSPI (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

PHP

 

 

Philippines Trade Balance 

-1259.0M

 

-640.0M 

 

-236.0M 

 

 

JPY

 

 

2-Year JGB Auction 

0.098%

 

 

 

0.100% 

 

 

SGD

 

 

Singaporean Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.5%

 

1.9% 

 

-2.3% 

 

 

THB

 

 

Thai Industrial Production (YoY) 

-13.7%

 

-9.9% 

 

-11.3% 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 26 

00:30

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.5% 

-0.4% 

 

13:30

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

1.9% 

1.3% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

83.0 

83.1 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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