NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis September 3, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 31, 2012 6:08 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD is trading at 0.7994 gaining a few pips in the morning session. The kiwi is overall weak as hopes fade of the Federal Reserve revealing fresh monetary stimulus and Spain delays asking for a bailout ahead of this weekend’s central bank summit.

Equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic fell as hopes for an immediate monetary boost from the Fed diminish ahead of this weekend’s central bankers’ retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said his government would delay deciding whether to seek a sovereign bailout until the aid conditions are clear. Traders are beginning to worry about Spain and its total bailout. It seems that the PM is trying to manipulate the EU and the ECB, but will not even release the size of the bailout. He wants to dictate terms and is trying to back the EU into a wall.

It is also difficult for the ECB to reveal or introduce new plans to aid the EU and the euro until they know exactly what they are facing.
As soon as Mr. Bernanke’s is finished today, all attention is expected to focus on Spain and Greece.

Once this is resolved and the Fed stimulus package is announced that NZD should return to above the 80 price level.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 31, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 31

KRW

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY)

0.3%

0.5%

1.4%

KRW

South Korean Service Sector Output (MoM)

0.70%

-0.20%

KRW

South Korean Industrial Production (MoM)

-1.6%

-1.0%

-0.6%

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

-29

-27

-29

JPY

Manufacturing PMI

47.7

47.9

JPY

Unemployment Rate

4.3%

4.3%

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)

-0.5%

-0.6%

JPY

National Core CPI (YoY)

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.2%

JPY

Household Spending (YoY)

1.7%

1.2%

1.6%

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM)

-1.2%

1.7%

0.4%

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM)

0.2%

0.4%

0.3%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 03

00:00

KRW

South Korean CPI (YoY)

1.4%

1.5%

00:00

KRW

South Korean CPI (MoM)

0.5%

-0.2%

02:30

AUD

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ)

1.0%

-4.0%

02:30

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM)

0.2%

1.0%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 03 09:10 Norway Bond auction

Sep 03 10:00 Belgium OLO auction

Sep 04 00:30 Japan Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04 09:15 Austria Bond auction

Sep 04 09:30 Belgium Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04 14:30 UK Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Sep 05 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05 09:30 UK 4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06 00:30 Japan Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06 08:30 Spain Bono auction

Sep 06 08:50 France OAT auction

Sep 06 09:10 Sweden I/L bond auction

Sep 06 15:00 US Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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