NZD/USD Fundamental Forecast – June 1, 2016

The NZD/USD gained 31 points this morning to trade at 0.6726 as the dollar gave back a bit of Monday’s gains while ANZ business confidence printed much higher than the previous month.  Stuff.co reported that businesses are increasingly confident about conditions in the months ahead, with more planning to take on new staff and make investments.

The ANZ business outlook survey for May showed a net 11.3 per cent of businesses expected the economy to improve in the next 12 months, compared to 6.2 per cent in April. The proportion of businesses expecting their own activity to improve over the next year was down marginally, to a net 30.4 per cent positive, but remained above the long term average.

Net scores reflect the difference between those who generally expect conditions to improve and those who expect conditions to worsen. A positive number means more of those surveyed expect conditions to improve than deteriorate.

The economic trail remains well groomed,” ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said, with construction remaining the most upbeat and agriculture the most pessimistic.

“Migration is strong. House prices are booming. The construction and tourism sectors are slaloming incredibly well.”

While businesses in the agriculture sector were negative about the economy overall, a net 5.6 per cent of agricultural businesses expected their own level of activity to increase in the next 12 months. Westpac said the picture was mixed.

The ANZ report showed sentiment in the agriculture sector was still the most pessimistic, though it had improved with a net 19 percent predicting the economy will deteriorate over the coming year compared to 27 percent in April. Expectations for their own activity were unchanged at 6 percent predicting an improvement. A net 7 percent intended to pull back on livestock investment, an improvement from 16 percent in March, and a net 7.6 percent anticipated reduced profits in the coming year, the only sector to predict weaker earnings.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

May 30 11:10 Italy Eur 2-2.5bn 0.45% Jun 2021 BTP

Jun 01 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Jun 01 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Apr 2021 Bobl

Jun 01 11:30 UK Gbp 2.75bn 1.5% 2021 Gilt

Jun 01 17:20 Sweden Announces details of bond auction on Jun 08

Jun 02 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Jun 02 10:50 France Eur 8-9bn 2.25% May 2024, 0.5% May 2026 & 3.25%

Jun 02 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% 2019 I/L & Sek 0.5bn 0.125% 2026 I/L bonds

Jun 06 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Jun 08

Jun 07 11:00 Netherlands Eur 4-6bn Jan 2022 DSL

Jun 07 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

Jun 07 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction

Jun 07 11:30 UK 4.5% 2046 Gilt

Jun 08 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Jun 08 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Jun 08 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2018 Schatz

Jun 08 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Jun 09 11:30 UK 0.125% 2036 I/L Gilt

Jun 09 17:20 Sweden Announces details of I/L auction on Jun 16