NZD/USD Fundamental Forecast – May 27, 2016

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Published: May 26, 2016, 04:07 UTC

The NZD/USD declined 19 points to 0.6721 diverging from the Aussie. Disappointing dairy prices and lower exports to China weighed heavily on the currency.

The NZD/USD declined 19 points to 0.6721 diverging from the Aussie. Disappointing dairy prices and lower exports to China weighed heavily on the currency. Fed Chair Yellen is due to speak on Friday, and could reinforce expectations that the central bank might raise interest rates as early as next month, or July. Hawkish minutes from the Fed’s April policy meeting and comments by several policymakers hinted that a hike could be forthcoming.

The kiwi dollar skidded to a two-month trough on Thursday after dairy giant Fonterra’s disappointing milk payout forecast, while the Australian dollar bounced off lows on a modest upgrade to overall spending plans.

The kiwi, which is sensitive to dairy, the nation’s top export earner, has skidded more than 3 cents this month, largely on expectations of further easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

The kiwi found little relief from much better-than-forecast budget numbers in the year to June. The government expects to post a NZ$668 million surplus in the year to June 2016 versus its prior forecast for a deficit of NZ$401 million.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, May 27, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
JPY	National Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)		-0.4%	-0.3%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (May)		-0.4%	-0.3%
USD	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)		0.9%	0.5%
USD	GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)		0.7%	0.7%
USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations		86.6	87.5
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)		95.4	95.8
USD	Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
USD	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count			318