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NZD/USD Fundamental Forecast – May 3, 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: May 2, 2016, 02:39 UTC

The NZD/USD added 30 points as the greenback continued to ease and on hopes of stimulus from China after a lackluster print of Chinese manufacturing PMI

NZD/USD Fundamental Forecast – May 3, 2016

The NZD/USD added 30 points as the greenback continued to ease and on hopes of stimulus from China after a lackluster print of Chinese manufacturing PMI which slipped to 50.1 against expectations of 50.4. Traders are closely monitoring tomorrow’s RBA decision which could have an effect on its cousin in New Zealand. PMI data released at the weekend showed manufacturing activity in China, the largest export market for New Zealand and Australia, expanded marginally for a second month, with a reading of 50.1 in April, easing from the 50.2 level in March and only just above the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction.

Scoop reported that the Australian dollar has weakened after a report last week showed inflation fell in the March quarter, surprising economists who had expected a gain and prompting speculation the RBA may cut interest rates further. PMI data released at the weekend showed manufacturing activity in China, the largest export market for New Zealand and Australia, expanded marginally for a second month, with a reading of 50.1 in April, easing from the 50.2 level in March and only just above the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction. Today, the local focus will be on an Australian NAB business confidence report ahead of the RBA meeting tomorrow.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Sunday’s economic releases:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  CNY Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 50.1 50.4 50.2  
  CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 53.5   53.8

Today’s economic releases:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
    China – Labor Day
    United Kingdom – Early May Bank Holiday
  EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   51.9 51.9  
  EUR Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   51.5 51.5  
  USD Manufacturing PMI (Apr)     50.8  
  USD ISM Manufacturing Employment     48.1  
  USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   51.5 51.8

 

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
  Japan – Constitution Day
  AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (Mar)   -3.0% 3.1%  
  CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   49.9 49.7  
  AUD Interest Rate Decision (May)   2.00% 2.00%  
  GBP Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   51.2 51.0

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

Mar 02 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Mar 04

May 04 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

May 04 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Apr 2021 Bobl

May 04 11:50 France Holds bond auction

May 04 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on May 11

May 05 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

May 05 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

 

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