NZD/USD Fundamental Forecast – May 4, 2016

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Published: May 3, 2016, 03:40 UTC

The NZD/USD added 30 points this morning after Chinese data fell again opening the possibility of additional stimulus. The gains were also boosted by the

NZD/USD Fundamental Forecast – May 4, 2016

The NZD/USD added 30 points this morning after Chinese data fell again opening the possibility of additional stimulus. The gains were also boosted by the weak US dollar. The kiwi is trading at 0.7051. The kiwi regained 0.70, as the US ISM softened. While the prices paid component spiked – reflecting commodity price rises – markets noted that US manufacturing remains just above stall speed. Fed speakers dominate the USD today, with the NZD likely to follow the fortunes of AUD. While NZD/AUD is more at risk from an unchanged policy rate, the NZD/USD looks to be more at risk from a cut.

The US currency has lost ground versus most major peers over the past month as traders lowered expectations for a rate increase by the Federal Reserve in June to 12 per cent.

The greenback slumped against Europe’s shared currency on Monday for a sixth day, the longest run of losses since September, after a report showed manufacturing in the US expanded less than forecast.

Persistent weakness dragged the dollar down against the euro for a third straight month in April – its longest losing streak since 2013 – amid signs US policy makers aren’t convinced the global and domestic economies can withstand higher borrowing costs. The US has posted disappointing growth data even amid nascent signs of recovery in Europe.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Japan – Constitution Day
AUD	Building Approvals (MoM) (Mar)		-3.0%	3.1%
CNY	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)		49.9	49.7
AUD	Interest Rate Decision (May)		2.00%	2.00%
GBP	Manufacturing PMI (Apr)		51.2	51.0