NZD/USD Monthly Fundamental Forecast October 2013

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NZD/USD Monthly Fundamental Forecast October 2013

NZD/USD Monthly Fundamental Forecast October 2013

Outlook and Recommendation

The NZD/USD closed the month at 0.8267 as data weighed on the currency but it was the US political drama at the end of the month along with the FOMC holding rates and policy against expectations that it would begin to tapering. There is a more favorable outlook for the New Zealand dollar, mainly as the central bank has introduced a hawkish tone and is widely anticipated to be the first central bank of the advanced economies to enter its hiking cycle. New Zealand’s second quarter real GDP growth was adversely impacted by a temporary – though severe – draught that impaired the country’s vital agricultural exports. Output grew by 0.1% q/q (2.2% y/y) compared with a 0.3% (2.5% y/y) gain in the January-March period. Excluding the poor external sector performance, economic conditions remained solid, with household spending and investment recording respectful gains

Highest: 0.8436

Lowest: 0.7726

Difference: 0.0710

Average: 0.8147

Change %: 6.46

The NZD had moved back to the upper end of its year-to-date range as of late September, outperforming all of the majors with a rise of nearly 7.0% from its August low at 0.7721. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s hawkish turn has been predicated on financial stability, overriding expressed concerns about the elevated exchange rate. Investor sentiment toward the NZD is neutral; however the high-beta nature of the currency leaves it vulnerable to external developments.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Central Bank – Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Date of next meeting or last meeting: Oct 30, 2013

Current Rate: 2.50%

nzdusd oct

Economic events for the month of October affecting AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event  

Forecast

Previous

Oct 1

12:30am

AUD

Cash Rate

2.50%

2.50%

 

12:30am

AUD

RBA Rate Statement

   
 

 10:00am

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

55.3

55.7

 

9:30pm

AUD

Building Approvals m/m

-0.7%

10.8%

 

9:30pm

AUD

Trade Balance

-0.45B

-0.77B

Oct 2

8:15am

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

177K

176K

Oct 3

10:00am

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

57.2

58.6

Oct 7

5:00pm

NZD

NZIER Business Confidence

 

32

Oct 8

8:30am

USD

Trade Balance

 

-39.1B

Oct 9

8:30pm

AUD

Employment Change

 

-10.8K

Oct 11

8:30am

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

 

0.1%

 

8:30am

USD

PPI m/m

 

0.3%

 

8:30am

USD

Retail Sales m/m

 

0.2%

 

9:55am

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

76.8

Oct 15

5:45pm

NZD

CPI q/q

 

0.2%

Oct 16

8:30am

USD

Core CPI m/m

 

0.1%

Oct 17

8:30am

USD

Building Permits

 

0.92M

 

8:30am

USD

Unemployment Claims

   
 

10:00am

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

22.3

 

10:00pm

CNY

GDP q/y

 

7.5%

 

10:00pm

CNY

Industrial Production y/y

 

10.4%

Oct 21

10:00am

USD

Existing Home Sales

   

Oct 22

8:30pm

AUD

CPI q/q

   

Oct 23

9:45pm

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI

   

Oct 24

8:30am

USD

Unemployment Claims

   
 

10:00am

USD

New Home Sales

   
 

8:00pm

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence

   

Oct 25

8:30am

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

   

Oct 28

10:00am

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

   
 

5:45pm

NZD

Trade Balance

   

Oct 29

10:00am

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

   

Oct 30

8:15am

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

   
 

8:30am

USD

Advance GDP q/q

   
 

4:00pm

NZD

Official Cash Rate

   
 

8:30pm

AUD

Building Approvals m/m

   

Oct 31

8:30am

USD

Unemployment Claims

   
 

8:30pm

AUD

PPI q/q

   
 

9:00pm

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

   
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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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