NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 16-20, 2012, Forecast

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Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD ended the week at 0.7959. Commodity currencies all improved on Friday, after investors moved away from risk and looked to other assets. Commodities and currencies all traded up on Friday.

Traders had been worried about the possibility of Chinese numbers coming in under forecast. On Friday the release eased market worries and investors moved to other assets.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jul 13, 2012

0.7959

0.7896

0.7966

0.7890

0.80%

Jul 12, 2012

0.7896

0.7949

0.7959

0.7862

-0.67%

Jul 11, 2012

0.7949

0.7942

0.7999

0.7932

0.09%

Jul 10, 2012

0.7942

0.7964

0.7988

0.7930

-0.28%

Jul 09, 2012

0.7964

0.7970

0.7978

0.7929

-0.08%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

 

Major Economic Events for the week of July 9 – 13 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jul 9

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements m/m

-1.2%

 

-2.6%

NZD

REINZ HPI m/m

0.3%

 

1.7%

NZD

NZIER Business Confidence

-4

 

13

Jul 10

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

-3

 

-2

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity m/m

0.7%

0.2%

-0.2%

Jul 11

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

3.7%

 

0.3%

AUD

Home Loans m/m

-1.2%

0.8%

0.5%

USD

Trade Balance

-48.7B

-48.5B

-50.6B

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.7M

-1.3M

-4.3M

Jul 12

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

3.3%

 

2.3%

 

AUD

Employment Change

-27.0K

0.2K

27.8K

AUD

Unemployment Rate

5.2%

5.2%

5.1%

JPY

Overnight Call Rate

<0.10%

<0.10%

<0.10%

USD

Unemployment Claims

350K

376K

376K

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%

-1.5%

-1.2%

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

-91.7B

-124.6B

Jul 13

USD

PPI m/m

0.1%

-0.5%

-1.0%

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.0

73.5

73.2

 

Historical

Highest: 0.8816 USD on Jul 31, 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6619 USD on Jun 07, 2010.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 16

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.2%

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

2.3

14:00

USD

Business Inventories m/m

0.4%

22:45

NZD

CPI q/q

0.5%

Jul 17

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

2.4%

9:15

ALL

G7 Meetings

 

12:30

USD

CPI m/m

-0.3%

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

25.6B

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

79.0%

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

-0.1%

Jul 18

0:30

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

0.5%

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.78M

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.71M

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.7M

Jul 19

1:30

AUD

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence

-1

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.55M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-16.6

Jul 20

1:30

AUD

Import Prices q/q

-1.2%

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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