NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 23-27, 2012, Forecast
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Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD traded strong most of the week, closing at 0.7996 up from the beginning of the week at 0.7963. There was little in the way of supportive eco data from New Zealand, as it was mid month. China was the controlling factor. Statements and data from the Imperial Empire were negative and showed a continuing slowdown, not yet under control
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Jul 20, 2012 |
0.7996 |
0.8032 |
0.8036 |
0.7980 |
-0.45% |
|
Jul 19, 2012 |
0.8032 |
0.7997 |
0.8055 |
0.7994 |
0.45% |
|
Jul 18, 2012 |
0.7996 |
0.7984 |
0.8006 |
0.7925 |
0.15% |
|
Jul 17, 2012 |
0.7984 |
0.7963 |
0.8004 |
0.7931 |
0.26% |
|
Jul 16, 2012 |
0.7963 |
0.7966 |
0.7988 |
0.7937 |
-0.04% |
The greenback was also strong against the commodity currencies towards the end of the week. Chairman Bernanke kept the USD bouncing with his testimony before congress and the beige book.
The kiwi is facing a week with a mountain of eco data, which is all expected to be supportive so we might see the kiwi rebound back over the 80 price.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 16 – 20 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 16 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
-0.4% |
0.1% |
-0.4% |
|
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.5% |
0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
7.4 |
3.9 |
2.3 |
|
|
USD |
Business Inventories m/m |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
|
NZD |
CPI q/q |
0.3% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
Jul 17 |
AUD |
New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m |
-0.6% |
|
2.3% |
|
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
USD |
CPI m/m |
0.0% |
0.0% |
-0.3% |
|
|
USD |
TIC Long-Term Purchases |
55.0B |
45.7B |
27.2B |
|
|
USD |
Capacity Utilization Rate |
78.9% |
79.2% |
78.7% |
|
|
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.4% |
0.4% |
-0.2% |
|
|
Jul 18 |
AUD |
MI Leading Index m/m |
0.8% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
Building Permits |
0.76M |
0.77M |
0.78M |
|
|
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.76M |
0.74M |
0.71M |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-0.8M |
0.5M |
-4.7M |
|
|
Jul 19 |
AUD |
NAB Quarterly Business Confidence |
-2 |
-1 |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
386K |
367K |
352K |
|
|
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.37M |
4.64M |
4.62M |
|
|
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-12.9 |
-7.9 |
-16.6 |
|
|
Jul 20 |
AUD |
Import Prices q/q |
2.4% |
1.6% |
-1.2% |
Historical
Highest: 0.8816 USD on Jul 31, 2011.
Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.
Lowest: 0.6619 USD on Jun 07, 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jul 23 |
1:30 |
AUD |
-0.3% |
|
|
Jul 24 |
13:00 |
USD |
52.5 |
|
|
22:45 |
NZD |
301M |
||
|
23:50 |
JPY |
-0.66T |
||
|
Jul 25 |
0:00 |
AUD |
-1.4% |
|
|
1:30 |
AUD |
0.1% |
||
|
1:30 |
AUD |
0.3% |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
369K |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
|||
|
21:00 |
NZD |
2.50% |
||
|
21:00 |
NZD |
|||
|
Jul 26 |
0:10 |
JPY |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.7% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
5.9% |
||
|
23:30 |
JPY |
-0.6% |
||
|
23:50 |
JPY |
3.6% |
||
|
Jul 27 |
12:30 |
USD |
1.9% |
|
|
13:55 |
USD |
72.0 |
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