NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 23-27, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD traded strong most of the week, closing at 0.7996 up from the beginning of the week at 0.7963. There was little in the way of supportive eco data from New Zealand, as it was mid month. China was the controlling factor. Statements and data from the Imperial Empire were negative and showed a continuing slowdown, not yet under control

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jul 20, 2012

0.7996

0.8032

0.8036

0.7980

-0.45%

Jul 19, 2012

0.8032

0.7997

0.8055

0.7994

0.45%

Jul 18, 2012

0.7996

0.7984

0.8006

0.7925

0.15%

Jul 17, 2012

0.7984

0.7963

0.8004

0.7931

0.26%

Jul 16, 2012

0.7963

0.7966

0.7988

0.7937

-0.04%

The greenback was also strong against the commodity currencies towards the end of the week. Chairman Bernanke kept the USD bouncing with his testimony before congress and the beige book.

The kiwi is facing a week with a mountain of eco data, which is all expected to be supportive so we might see the kiwi rebound back over the 80 price.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks. 

Major Economic Events for the week of July 16 – 20 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event 

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jul 16

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

-0.4%

0.1%

-0.4%

 

USD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.5%

0.1%

-0.2%

 

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

7.4

3.9

2.3

 

USD

Business Inventories m/m

0.3%

0.2%

0.3%

 

NZD

CPI q/q

0.3%

0.5%

0.5%

Jul 17

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

-0.6%

 

2.3%

 

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

 

USD

CPI m/m

0.0%

0.0%

-0.3%

 

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

55.0B

45.7B

27.2B

 

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

78.9%

79.2%

78.7%

 

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.4%

0.4%

-0.2%

Jul 18

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

0.8%

 

0.5%

 

USD

Building Permits

0.76M

0.77M

0.78M

 

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

0.74M

0.71M

 

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-0.8M

0.5M

-4.7M

Jul 19

AUD

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence

-2

 

-1

 

USD

Unemployment Claims

386K

367K

352K

 

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.37M

4.64M

4.62M

 

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-12.9

-7.9

-16.6

Jul 20

AUD

Import Prices q/q

2.4%

1.6%

-1.2%

Historical

Highest: 0.8816 USD on Jul 31, 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6619 USD on Jun 07, 2010.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 23

1:30

AUD

PPI q/q

-0.3%

Jul 24

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

52.5

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance

301M

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance

-0.66T

Jul 25

0:00

AUD

CB Leading Index m/m

-1.4%

1:30

AUD

CPI q/q

0.1%

1:30

AUD

Trimmed Mean CPI q/q

0.3%

14:00

USD

New Home Sales

369K

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

21:00

NZD

Official Cash Rate

2.50%

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Rate Statement

 

Jul 26

0:10

JPY

BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks

 

12:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.7%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

5.9%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

-0.6%

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales y/y

3.6%

Jul 27

12:30

USD

Advance GDP q/q

1.9%

13:55

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.0

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.


include_once( __DIR__ . "/request_context.php");