NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 25-29, 2012, Forecast

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Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:


The NZD/USD perked up a bit this week, but closed at 0.7904 on the strength of the USD. GDP soared in the kiwi island nation, giving locals some hopes for the future. It was the global economy that was weighing on New Zealand.

With negative numbers from all of its neighbors, such as China and Japan, New Zealand’s major trading partners, the global outlook has turned down and is causing the commodity currencies to weaken

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of June 19-23, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 19

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-16.9

 

4.0 

 

10.8 

 

 

Jun. 20

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

8.1K

 

-3.0K 

 

-12.8K 

   

 

17:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25%

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

 

 

 

19:15

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

23:45

 

NZD

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.1%

 

0.5% 

 

0.4% 

   

Jun. 21

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.4%

 

1.2% 

 

-2.4% 

   

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

387K

 

380K 

 

389K 

   

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

4.55M

 

4.57M 

 

4.62M 

 

 

Jun. 22

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

105.3

 

105.9 

 

106.9 

 

 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

Historical

Highest: 0.8816 USD on Jul 31, 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6619 USD on Jun 07, 2010.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Jun 25

14:00

USD

New Home Sales

343K

Jun 26

13:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

-2.6%

14:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

64.9

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance

355M

Jun 27

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jun 28

12:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.2%

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

-5.5%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales y/y

5.8%

1:00

NZD

NBNZ Business Confidence

27.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jun 29

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

12:30

USD

Final GDP q/q

1.9%

22:45

NZD

Building Consents m/m

-7.2%

23:30

JPY

Household Spending y/y

2.6%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

-0.8%

23:50

JPY

Prelim Industrial Production m/m

-0.2%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit m/m

0.4%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.1%

 

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

52.7

13:55

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

74.1

 

 

 

 

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Jun 25  09:10  Norway

Jun 25  09:30  Germany

Jun 25  10:00  Belgium

Jun 25  15:30  Italy

Jun 26  00:30  Japan

Jun 26  08:30  Holland

Jun 26  08:30  Spain

Jun 26  09:10  Italy

Jun 26  09:30  UK

Jun 26  14:30  UK

Jun 26  17:00  US

Jun 27  09:10  Italy

Jun 27  09:10  Sweden

Jun 27  17:00  US

Jun 28  09:10  Italy

Jun28  17:00  US 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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