NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 25-29, 2012, Forecast

Posted June 23, 2012 15:00 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD perked up a bit this week, but closed at 0.7904 on the strength of the USD. GDP soared in the kiwi island nation, giving locals some hopes for the future. It was the global economy that was weighing on New Zealand.

With negative numbers from all of its neighbors, such as China and Japan, New Zealand’s major trading partners, the global outlook has turned down and is causing the commodity currencies to weaken

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of June 19-23, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

Currency

Importance

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun. 19

02:30

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

-16.9

4.0

10.8

Jun. 20

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

8.1K

-3.0K

-12.8K

17:30

USD

Interest Rate Decision

0.25%

0.25%

19:15

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

23:45

NZD

GDP (QoQ)

1.1%

0.5%

0.4%

Jun. 21

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM)

1.4%

1.2%

-2.4%

13:30

CAD

Core Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.3%

0.2%

0.3%

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

387K

380K

389K

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.55M

4.57M

4.62M

Jun. 22

09:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index

105.3

105.9

106.9

13:30

CAD

Core CPI (MoM)

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

Historical

Highest: 0.8816 USD on Jul 31, 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6619 USD on Jun 07, 2010.

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Jun 25	14:00	USD	New Home Sales	343K
Jun 26	13:00	USD	S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y	-2.6%
	14:00	USD	CB Consumer Confidence	64.9
	22:45	NZD	Trade Balance	355M
Jun 27 Jun 28	12:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders m/m	0.2%
	14:00	USD	Pending Home Sales m/m	-5.5%
	14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories
	23:50	JPY	Retail Sales y/y	5.8%
	1:00	NZD	NBNZ Business Confidence	27.1
Jun 29	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims
	12:30	USD	Final GDP q/q	1.9%
	22:45	NZD	Building Consents m/m	-7.2%
	23:30	JPY	Household Spending y/y	2.6%
	23:30	JPY	Tokyo Core CPI y/y	-0.8%
	23:50	JPY	Prelim Industrial Production m/m	-0.2%
	1:30	AUD	Private Sector Credit m/m	0.4%
	12:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.1%
	12:30	USD	Personal Spending m/m	0.3%
	13:45	USD	Chicago PMI	52.7
	13:55	USD	Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment	74.1

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jun 25 09:10 Norway

Jun 25 09:30 Germany

Jun 25 10:00 Belgium

Jun 25 15:30 Italy

Jun 26 00:30 Japan

Jun 26 08:30 Holland

Jun 26 08:30 Spain

Jun 26 09:10 Italy

Jun 26 09:30 UK

Jun 26 14:30 UK

Jun 26 17:00 US

Jun 27 09:10 Italy

Jun 27 09:10 Sweden

Jun 27 17:00 US

Jun 28 09:10 Italy

Jun28 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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