NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 1-5, 2012 Forecast

Posted September 29, 2012 9:52 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD closed the week at 0.8300 towards the higher range of the trading week. The New Zealand dollar is headed for a 4.3 percent quarterly gain as fund managers reposition their global portfolios against the backdrop of increased optimism.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Sep 28, 2012	0.8300	0.8307	0.8356	0.8277	-0.08%
Sep 27, 2012	0.8307	0.8250	0.8326	0.8242	0.69%
Sep 26, 2012	0.8250	0.8194	0.8256	0.8185	0.68%
Sep 25, 2012	0.8194	0.8218	0.8284	0.8192	-0.29%
Sep 24, 2012	0.8218	0.8269	0.8274	0.8184	-0.62%

The kiwi extended its rally to 83.51 US cents at 5pm in Wellington from 83.15 cents at 8am and 82.58 cents on Thursday. The trade-weighted index advanced to 74.02 from 73.40 on Thursday, and is looking at t 2.6 percent quarterly gain.

Stocks across Asia extended their rally today after the People’s Bank of China injected a net 365 billion yuan into the financial system this week, bolstering optimism the increased liquidity will soften the slow-down in the world’s second-biggest economy.

New Zealand authorities issued 1.9 percent more new building consents last month, the third straight monthly gain, according to government figures.

The data showed more evidence the Canterbury rebuild is gathering pace, with $47 million of earthquake related consents in August.

Investor sentiment was bolstered by the Spanish government’s budget, which aims to cut the 2013 deficit to 4.5 per cent of gross domestic product from a target of 6.3 per cent this year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 24-28, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 25	USD	CB Consumer Confidence	70.3	63.0	61.3
	NZD	Trade Balance	-789M	-606M	97M
Sep. 26	NOK	Norwegian Unemployment Rate	3.00%	3.00%	3.10%
	MXN	Mexican Trade Balance	-0.980B	-0.556B	-0.427B
	USD	New Home Sales	373K	380K	374K
Sep. 27	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	-1.6%	0.3%	-1.3%
	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	-13.2%	-5.0%	3.3%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	359K	378K	385K
	USD	GDP (QoQ)	1.3%	1.7%	1.7%
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3271K	3285K	3275K
	USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM)	-2.6%	-0.7%	2.6%
	NZD	Building Consents (MoM)	1.9%	3.0%	2.0%
Sep. 28	JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)	-0.4%	-0.3%	-0.5%
	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.3%	-0.5%	-1.0%
	JPY	Retail Sales (YoY)	1.8%	-0.2%	-0.8%
	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
	USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
	USD	Chicago PMI	49.7	53.0	53.0
	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	78.3	79.0	79.2

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.8842 USD on Aug 01, 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6562 USD on May 25, 2010.

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 01	00:50	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	-3	-1
	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	49.8	49.6
Oct. 02	05:30	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	3.50%	3.50%
Oct. 03	02:30	AUD	Trade Balance	-0.70B	-0.56B
Oct. 04	02:30	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	4.7%	-17.3%
	02:30	AUD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.4%	-0.8%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 01 10:00 Norway

Oct 02 09:15 Austria

Oct 02 09:30 Belgium

Oct 02 09:30 UK

Oct 02 14:30 UK

Oct 03 09:10 Sweden

Oct 03 10:00 Norway

Oct 04 08:30 Spain

Oct 04 08:50 France

Oct 04 15:00 US

Oct 05 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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