NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 1-5, 2012 Forecast

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Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD closed the week at 0.8300 towards the higher range of the trading week. The New Zealand dollar is headed for a 4.3 percent quarterly gain as fund managers reposition their global portfolios against the backdrop of increased optimism.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Sep 28, 2012

0.8300

0.8307

0.8356

0.8277

-0.08%

Sep 27, 2012

0.8307

0.8250

0.8326

0.8242

0.69%

Sep 26, 2012

0.8250

0.8194

0.8256

0.8185

0.68%

Sep 25, 2012

0.8194

0.8218

0.8284

0.8192

-0.29%

Sep 24, 2012

0.8218

0.8269

0.8274

0.8184

-0.62%

The kiwi extended its rally to 83.51 US cents at 5pm in Wellington from 83.15 cents at 8am and 82.58 cents on Thursday. The trade-weighted index advanced to 74.02 from 73.40 on Thursday, and is looking at t 2.6 percent quarterly gain.

Stocks across Asia extended their rally today after the People’s Bank of China injected a net 365 billion yuan into the financial system this week, bolstering optimism the increased liquidity will soften the slow-down in the world’s second-biggest economy.

New Zealand authorities issued 1.9 percent more new building consents last month, the third straight monthly gain, according to government figures.

The data showed more evidence the Canterbury rebuild is gathering pace, with $47 million of earthquake related consents in August.

Investor sentiment was bolstered by the Spanish government’s budget, which aims to cut the 2013 deficit to 4.5 per cent of gross domestic product from a target of 6.3 per cent this year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 24-28, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 25

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

70.3

63.0 

61.3 

 

NZD

Trade Balance 

-789M

-606M 

97M 

Sep. 26

NOK

Norwegian Unemployment Rate 

3.00%

3.00% 

3.10% 

 

MXN

Mexican Trade Balance 

-0.980B

-0.556B 

-0.427B 

 

USD

New Home Sales 

373K

380K 

374K 

Sep. 27 

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-1.6%

0.3% 

-1.3% 

 

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-13.2%

-5.0% 

3.3% 

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

359K

378K 

385K 

 

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

1.3%

1.7% 

1.7% 

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3271K

3285K 

3275K 

 

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

-2.6%

-0.7% 

2.6% 

 

NZD

Building Consents (MoM) 

1.9%

3.0% 

2.0% 

 Sep. 28 

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.4%

-0.3% 

-0.5% 

 

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.3%

-0.5% 

-1.0% 

 

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY) 

1.8%

-0.2% 

-0.8% 

 

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

0.1% 

0.1% 

 

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.5%

0.5% 

0.4% 

 

USD

Chicago PMI 

49.7

53.0 

53.0 

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

78.3

79.0 

79.2 

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.8842 USD on Aug 01, 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6562 USD on May 25, 2010.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 01

00:50

JPY

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 

-3

-1

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

49.8

49.6

Oct. 02

05:30

AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

3.50%

3.50%

Oct. 03

02:30

AUD

Trade Balance 

-0.70B

-0.56B

Oct. 04

02:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) 

4.7%

-17.3%

 

02:30

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

-0.8%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 01 10:00 Norway 

Oct 02 09:15 Austria 

Oct 02 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 02 09:30 UK 

Oct 02 14:30 UK 

Oct 03 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 03 10:00 Norway 

Oct 04 08:30 Spain 

Oct 04 08:50 France 

Oct 04 15:00 US 

Oct 05 15:30 Italy 

 

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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