NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

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NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD closed on Friday at 0.8165 having opened the prior Monday at 0.8185, the pair had a 20 pip loss for the week but hit a high of 0.8238 early in the week on weakness in the USD. Dealers were already turning their focus to a raft of Chinese economic data due in coming days, starting with trade figures on Saturday and culminating with gross domestic product next Thursday.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Oct 12, 2012

0.8165

0.8163

0.8210

0.8162

0.04%

Oct 11, 2012

0.8162

0.8165

0.8191

0.8154

-0.02%

Oct 10, 2012

0.8164

0.8157

0.8207

0.8147

0.10%

Oct 09, 2012

0.8156

0.8207

0.8238

0.8146

-0.62%

Oct 08, 2012

0.8207

0.8185

0.8223

0.8149

0.26%

 Any downside surprise in the numbers would likely hurt the Kiwi given how important the Asian giant is as an export market. Analysts at Commonwealth Bank expect GDP growth to slow a touch to 7.4 percent in the year to September, from 7.6 percent the quarter before. An outcome in line with forecasts would imply that the Chinese economy is past the trough but, traders no longer have expectations for a marked acceleration in growth momentum to the first half of next year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 8-12, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 08 

NZD

NZIER Business Confidence 

8

 

-4

Oct. 09

JPY

Adjusted Current Account 

0.72T

0.52T

0.34T

 

AUD

NAB Business Confidence 

0

 

-3

Oct. 10 

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

1.00%

 

1.60%

 

USD

10-Year Note Auction 

1.700%

 

1.764%

 Oct. 11

AUD

Employment Change 

14.5K

3.8K

-9.1K

 

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7%

1.1%

 

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.2B

-44.0B

-42.5B

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

339K

370K

369K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3273K

3275K

3288K

Oct. 12

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

-1.9%

 

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

 

USD

PPI (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7%

1.7%

 

USD

PPI (YoY) 

2.1%

1.8%

2.0%

 

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.3%

2.5%

2.5%

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

83.1

78.0

78.3

 

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

75.0B

42.0B

-191.0B

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.8842 USD on Aug 01, 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6562 USD on May 25, 2010.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 15

01:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) 

 

-1.0%

 

05:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

 

-1.3%

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

0.8%

 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-5.0

-10.4

 

22:45

NZD

CPI (QoQ) 

0.6%

0.3%

Oct. 16

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.6%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

1.7%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

1.9%

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

67.0B

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2%

-1.2%

Oct. 17

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.810M

0.801M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.770M

0.750M

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 15 09:10 Slovakia 

Oct 15 10:00 Norway 

Oct 16 08:30 Spain 

Oct 16 09:10 Greece 

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain 

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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