NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 22-26, 2012 Forecast

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NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 22-26, 2012 Forecast

NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 22-26, 2012 Forecast

Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD closed the week at 0.8159 in the same range it traded at the opening of the week. The kiwi more or less followed global cues all week. This week, the NZD is expected to follow the same movements of the AUD. The Chinese data will give a better understanding of the current Chinese economy, the PMI number will have to be above 49 to generate “risk-on trading activity.  The bigger risk is if it comes in lower as it will (call) into question the veracity of the data previously released. Last week the Chinese data dump showed that GDP fell to 7.4% as expected but retail sales and manufacturing reported above expectations.

The biggest risk will be the meeting and outcome of the RBA decision this week which might weigh on the NZD.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Oct 19, 2012

0.8159

0.8194

0.8206

0.8149

-0.43%

Oct 18, 2012

0.8194

0.8216

0.8230

0.8177

-0.27%

Oct 17, 2012

0.8216

0.8174

0.8227

0.8163

0.51%

Oct 16, 2012

0.8174

0.8166

0.8182

0.8109

0.10%

Oct 15, 2012

0.8166

0.8151

0.8196

0.8131

0.20%

Otherwise it will be the strength of the USD after the FOMC two day meeting this week. Due to positive eco data in the US, the Feds are expected to hold any additional stimulus at this time, giving the USD additional strengths which might weigh on the kiwi.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 15-19, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 15

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) 

1.8%

1.4%

-0.7%

 

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

1.9%

2.0%

 

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-3.6%

-3.6%

-3.5%

 

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

0.4%

0.6%

 

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.6%

-1.3%

-1.3%

 

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.1%

0.6%

1.0%

 

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.1%

0.8%

1.2%

 

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-6.2

-4.5

-10.4

 

NZD

CPI (QoQ) 

0.3%

0.6%

0.3%

 Oct. 16

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

 

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

0.5%

0.6%

 

USD

CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

1.9%

1.7%

 

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0%

1.9%

 

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

90.0B

45.3B

67.2B

 

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.4%

0.2%

-1.4%

 Oct. 17

USD

Building Permits 

0.894M

0.810M

0.801M

 

USD

Housing Starts 

0.872M

0.770M

0.758M

Oct. 18

AUD

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 

-2.00

 

-2.00

 

CNY

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.5%

20.2%

20.2%

 

CNY

Chinese GDP (YoY) 

7.4%

7.4%

7.6%

 

CNY

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.2%

9.0%

8.9%

 

CNY

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

14.2%

13.2%

13.2%

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

388K

365K

342K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3252K

3275K

3281K

 

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

5.7

1.0

-1.9

Oct. 19 

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.75M

4.75M

4.82M

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.8842 USD on Aug 01, 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6562 USD on May 25, 2010.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 24

01:30

AUD

CPI (QoQ) 

1.1%

0.5%

 

01:30

AUD

Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) 

0.6%

0.5%

 

02:45

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

 

47.90

 

15:00

USD

New Home Sales

385K

373K

 

21:00

NZD

Interest Rate Decision 

2.50%

2.50%

Oct. 25 

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance 

-825M

-789M

Oct. 26 

00:30

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.5%

-0.4%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 22 09:10 Norway 

Oct 23 08:30 Spain 

Oct 23 14:30 UK 

Oct 23 17:00 US 

Oct 24 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 24 09:30 Germany 

Oct 24 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 24 15:30 Italy  

Oct 24 16:30 US 

Oct 25 00:30 Japan 

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 25 15:30 Italy  

Oct 25 17:00 US 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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