NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 24-28, 2012 Forecast

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Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The NZD/USD ended the week at 0.8288 almost at its open on the previous Monday. The NZD/USD has been one of the day’s strongest performers, trading near session highs at 0.8334 during European trading Friday. Feelings of risk-appetite have effectively gripped the markets today, as commodity-bloc currencies seem to be poised to be the prime beneficiaries thus far. Having firmly established itself above the 0.8300 level, the pair has notched a gain of +0.40% on the day. 

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Sep 21, 2012

0.8288

0.8294

0.8337

0.8281

-0.07%

Sep 20, 2012

0.8294

0.8299

0.8303

0.8208

-0.06%

Sep 19, 2012

0.8299

0.8280

0.8300

0.8252

0.23%

Sep 18, 2012

0.8280

0.8262

0.8285

0.8236

0.22%

Sep 17, 2012

0.8262

0.8286

0.8305

0.8250

-0.29%

In terms of the technical levels, the NZD/USD is currently testing resistance at 0.8334. However, a break above this level will activate additional resistances at 0.8369 and 0.8432, consistent with the calculations of the analyst team at Mataf.net. In the event of a consolidation movement, the exchange rate will encounter means of support at 0.8236, then 0.8173, and eventually 0.8138. 

The kiwi continues to draw support from the fact the NZ economy remains in better shape than most. Positive relative growth and interest rate differentials will support the NZD through to mid 2013 – our end-2012 NZD/USD forecast is still 0.8200.

On the data front, there are no releases scheduled from New Zealand or the United States today. Next week, investors will anxiously wait the reporting of Trade Balance statistics in the NZ economy (Tuesday September 25), which looks to build on a strong GDP report released earlier this week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks. 

Major Economic Events for the week of September 17-21, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 17

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-10.4

-2.0

-5.8

Sep. 18

13:30

USD

Current Account 

-117.4B

-125.5B

-133.6B

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

67.0B

45.3B

9.3B

 

23:45

NZD

Current Account 

-1.80B

-1.64B

-1.07B

Sep. 19

04:45

JPY

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

0.10%

0.10%

 

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.803M

0.796M

0.811M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.750M

0.765M

0.733M

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.82M

4.55M

4.47M

 

23:45

NZD

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6%

0.3%

1.0%

Sep. 20

00:50

JPY

Trade Balance 

-0.47T

-0.37T

-0.37T

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

382K

375K

385K

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3272K

3300K

3304K

 

15:00

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

-1.9

-4.0

-7.1

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 25 

15:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

62.0 

60.6 

 

23:45

NZD

Trade Balance 

-606M 

15M 

Sep. 27

23:45

NZD

Building Consents (MoM) 

 

2.0% 

Sep. 28 

00:30

JPY

Unemployment Rate 

4.3% 

4.3% 

 

00:30

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.3% 

-0.5% 

 

00:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5% 

-1.0% 

 

00:50

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY) 

-0.2% 

-0.8% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 24 09:10 Norway 

Sep 24 09:30 Germany 

Sep 24 10:00 Belgium 

Sep 24 15:30 Italy  

Sep 25 08:30 Holland 

Sep 25 08:30 Spain 

Sep 25 09:10 Italy  

Sep 25 14:30 UK 

Sep 25 17:00 US 

Sep 26 09:10 Italy  

Sep 26 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 26 09:00 Germany 

Sep 26 14:30 Sweden 

 

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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