Oil Fundamental Analysis – week of July 11, 2016 -Forecast

Crude Oil dipped this week again as markets looked at fundamentals including lower demand. Oil is trading at 45.16 down 8% for the week. Brent oil dipped 7.5% to 46.56. US crude prices have steadied on Friday, following sharp losses on Thursday. On the release front, employment data will be in the spotlight with three key events, highlighted by Nonfarm Employment Change.

An uneventful Thursday turned into a rout for oil prices, as US crude fell 3 percent in Thursday’s North American session. US crude reacted negatively to the EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, although the reading was close to the forecast. The indicator declined 2.2 million barrels last week, and this was much stronger than the API Crude Oil Stock report, which had forecast a decline of some 6.7 million barrels. The actual decline was much smaller than many market players had anticipated and this led to a sharp drop in crude prices on Thursday. We could see further volatility from crude on Friday, with the release of Nonfarm Payrolls, one of the most important economic indicators. A strong reading could see oil prices reverse directions and move upwards.

US employment numbers looked sharp on Thursday. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change was almost unchanged in June, with a reading of 172 thousand. This figure was well above the forecast of 158 thousand. This was followed by a solid unemployment claims release, as the indicator dropped to 254 thousand, marking an 11-week low. All eyes are now on the official Nonfarm Payrolls report which will be released on Friday. A strong release would confirm that the labor market is improving and job creation is gaining steam. The markets will also be keeping a close look at the unemployment rate and Average Hourly wages, which will be released later today.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

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