Oil Fundamental Analysis – week of September 12, 2016 – Forecast

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Published: Sep 10, 2016, 07:07 UTC

Crude Oil closed the week at 45.72 as the days until the producers meeting moves closer. WTI gained 2.88% for the week although it fell almost 4% on

Oil Fundamental Analysis – week of September 12, 2016 – Forecast

Crude Oil closed the week at 45.72 as the days until the producers meeting moves closer. WTI gained 2.88% for the week although it fell almost 4% on Friday alone as speculators played their games. Brent oil ended at 47.86. Oil prices fell Friday on a stronger dollar and skepticism that a large drop in U.S. inventories last week marks the beginning of a trend. But prices still posted a weekly gain following the biggest one-week stockpile decline in about 17 years and indications that some major producers are willing to cooperate on a production freeze.

Prices surged Thursday after the Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude supplies fell by 14.5 million barrels last week, the biggest weekly drawdown since 1999.

Crude inventories around the world stand near record levels, keeping prices subdued, and traders are closely watching inventories for signs that the global glut of crude is shrinking. But last week’s large drop was viewed as an outlier by traders and money managers due to bad weather that halted some production and prevented imports from arriving in the Gulf Coast.

“Last week’s storm caused production disruptions and import delays,” said the head of commodities research for Zurich-based bank Julius Baer, in a note. “Gulf of Mexico oil and gas operations have largely resumed and tankers are queuing for offloading. The storage decrease is set to be a one-off, likely offset by large increases next week.”

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia are continuing to talk about a possible production freeze ahead of a meeting on the subject in Algeria later this month. But any deal would have to overcome major obstacles. Many countries already are producing near record-high levels, and Iran has refused to consider a production cap until its production grows further.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date	Country	Name	Volatility	Previous	Consensus
9/13/2016	GBP	Core Consumer Price Index	3	1.3	1.4
9/13/2016	GBP	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	3	0.6	0.7
9/13/2016	EUR	ECB President Draghi’s Speech	3
9/13/2016	EUR	ZEW Survey – Economic	3	4.6	6.7
9/14/2016	NZD	Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	3	2.8
9/15/2016	AUD	Employment Change	3	26.2	15
9/15/2016	AUD	Unemployment Rate	3	5.7	5.7
9/15/2016	CHF	SNB Interest Rate Decision	3	-0.75	-0.75
9/15/2016	CHF	SNB press conference	3
9/15/2016	GBP	BoE Asset Purchase Facility	3	435	435
9/15/2016	GBP	BoE Interest Rate Decision	3	0.25	0.25
9/15/2016	GBP	Monetary Policy Summary	3
9/15/2016	GBP	BOE MPC Vote Cut	3	9	0
9/15/2016	GBP	BOE MPC Vote Unchanged	3	0	9
9/15/2016	GBP	BOE MPC Vote Hike	3	0	0
9/15/2016	GBP	Bank of England Minutes	3
9/15/2016	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	3	0	0
9/16/2016	USD	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	3	0.8	1
9/16/2016	USD	Consumer Price Index ECORE	3	2.2	2.2
9/16/2016	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	3	89.8	91