Oil Fundamental Forecast – April 29, 2016

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Published: Apr 28, 2016, 08:47 UTC

Crude Oil gave up 24 cents to 45.09 as traders booked profits. Oil is expected to continue to climb but will also see technical selling at each new level.

Oil Fundamental Forecast – April 29, 2016

Crude Oil gave up 24 cents to 45.09 as traders booked profits. Oil is expected to continue to climb but will also see technical selling at each new level. Brent oil is trading at 46.72. The Economics Calendar today said the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data reported a crude oil build of 2.0mn barrels in the latest week, higher than the expected build of 1.5mn barrels, with oil prices subjected to significant profit taking after the data.

US crude production continued to decline slightly in the latest week at 8.94mn bpd from 8.95mn the previous week. There was also a build of 1.75mn in Cushing stocks for the week, while distillates recorded a draw of 1.7mn barrels from a previous draw of 3.55mn. Gasoline registered a surprise build of 1.6mn barrels compared with an expected draw of around 0.4mn for the week.

Refinery utilization was little changed over the week, while crude imports were running at a rate of 637,000 bpd below the previous week. At 540.6mn barrels inventories remain at historically high levels for this time of the year.

After experiencing a steep fall over 18 months, from $120 to just $26 a barrel, oil prices have been soaring since the start of February. Both Brent and WTI Futures have risen by more than 60% in less than three months, thanks to several supporting reports and bullish sentiments.

Oil initiated its rally from decade-low prices on the reports of a possible agreement between the world’s fifteen largest producers. However, the April 17th Doha meeting ended in failure, with no agreement between the oil leaders on freezing their production levels.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Interest Rate Decision	2.25%	2.25%	2.25%
JPY	Household Spending (YoY) (Mar)	-5.3%	-4.2%	1.2%
JPY	Household Spending (MoM) (Mar)	0.5%	-0.3%	1.7%
JPY	Jobs/applications ratio (Mar)	1.30	1.28	1.28
JPY	National Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.0%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)	3.6%	2.9%	-5.2%
JPY	Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)	-1.1%	-1.5%	0.4%
JPY	BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
JPY	Interest Rate Decision	-0.10%	-0.10%	-0.10%
JPY	BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
GBP	Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Apr)	4.9%	5.0%	5.7%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
EUR	German Unemployment Change (Apr)	-16K	4K	0K
EUR	German Unemployment Rate (Apr)	6.2%	6.2%	6.2%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Apr)		-0.2%	0.8%
USD	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)		0.7%	1.4%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		260K	247K

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, April 29, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Japan – Showa Day
NZD	Building Consents (MoM) (Mar)			10.8%
NZD	ANZ Business Confidence (Apr)			3.2
AUD	PPI (QoQ) (Q1)		0.2%	0.3%
AUD	Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Mar)		0.6%	0.6%
EUR	German Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)		0.3%	-0.4%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		0.9%	1.0%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)		0.4%	0.3%
EUR	Unemployment Rate (Mar)		10.3%	10.3%
GBP	BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)		0.1%	0.1%
USD	Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar)		0.2%	0.1%
CAD	GDP (MoM) (Feb)		-0.1%	0.6%
CAD	RMPI (MoM) (Mar)		3.7%	-2.6%
USD	Chicago PMI (Apr)		53.0	53.6
USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations		80.2	79.6
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)		90.0	89.7
USD	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count			343