Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil continued to fall as China goes out on vacation. Oil declined 60 cents to 30.29 while Brent Oil gave up 55 cents
Crude Oil continued to fall as China goes out on vacation. Oil declined 60 cents to 30.29 while Brent Oil gave up 55 cents to 33.51. U.S. oil-drilling rigs edged down for a seventh week in a row. They fell by 31 to 467 as of Friday. The total active U.S. rig count, which includes natural-gas rigs, was down 48 at 571. Compared to last year, the total U.S. rig count has fallen by 885, with oil rigs down by 673.
Low oil prices will persist for longer than previously expected, according to Morgan Stanley, which reduced its quarterly crude forecasts for this year by as much as 51 percent.
Morgan Stanley now sees oil mostly falling through 2016, compared with a previous outlook for prices to rise each quarter, analysts including Adam Longson said in a report. Brent crude is expected to average $29 a barrel in the three months to December, compared with an estimate for $59 in a Jan. 18 note.
“Weaker-than-expected demand, higher-than-expected supply, rising inventories and increased hedging incentives all work to delay rebalancing, and slow the rise in prices immediately thereafter,” Longson wrote in the Feb. 4 report.
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WEEKLY
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |||
China – Lunar New Year | |||||||
New Zealand – Waitangi | |||||||
JPY | Adjusted Current Account | 1.64T | 1.42T | ||||
JPY | Current Account n.s.a. (Dec) | 0.96T | 0.987T | 1.144T |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Tuesday, February 9, 2016
Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |||
China – Lunar New Year | |||||||
AUD | HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) | -2.7% | |||||
GBP | BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jan) | 0.4% | 0.1% | ||||
AUD | NAB Business Confidence (Jan) | 3 | |||||
EUR | German Industrial Production (MoM) | 0.4% | -0.3% | ||||
EUR | German Trade Balance (Dec) | 20.2B | 19.7B | ||||
GBP | Trade Balance (Dec) | -10.35B | -10.64B | ||||
GBP | Trade Balance Non-EU (Dec) | -2.55B | -2.45B | ||||
USD | JOLTs Job Openings (Dec) | 5.400M | 5.431M |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time and Country
Feb 08 16:20 Italy Details of bond auction
Feb 09 11:00 Netherlands Holds DSL auction
Feb 09 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction
Feb 09 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction
Feb 09 11:30 UK 0.125% 2026 Gilt linker auction
Feb 09 n/a UK Details of Gilt auction on Feb 17
Feb 09 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction
Feb 10 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn Mar 2018 Schatz
Feb 10 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on Feb 17
Feb 10 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction
Feb 11 N/A Italy Euro 4-5bn 30-yr syndicated bond auction
Feb 11 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction
Feb 11 11:10 Italy Announces details of bond auction
Feb 11 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction
Feb 11 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction
Feb 11 n/a US Details of 30-yr TIPS auction on Feb 18
Feb 12 11:10 France Details of bond auction on 18 Feb