Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil added 45 points as traders bought up the cheap commodity taking advantage of low prices and the hopes that OPEC
Crude Oil added 45 points as traders bought up the cheap commodity taking advantage of low prices and the hopes that OPEC members will cut production now that Iran has returned to the marketplace combating US exports. Brent Oil added $1.08 to 29.64. Crude oil prices continued to be hurt by bearish sentiments across the globe as markets remain nervous as to how low oil prices can go. Besides, the supply side remains intact further exerting downside pressure on oil prices.
Low oil prices, weak investment demand and low physical demand are push factors for gold prices to trade lower while bargain hunting will provide a push for gold prices in the near term.
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information and Administration) had reported that the global crude oil production will rise to 95.9 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2016 and 96.7 MMbpd in 2017. The global crude oil production was at 95.7 MMbpd of crude oil in 2015. The global oil consumption is expected to average 95.2 MMbpd in 2016 and 96.6 MMbpd in 2017.
Meanwhile, the JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs suggested that crude oil prices could test $20 per barrel in 2016. Royal Bank of Scotland suggests that crude oil prices could test $16 per barrel, while Standard Chartered suggests that oil prices could hit $10 per barrel in the worst-case scenario.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.
WEEKLY
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.
Today’s economic releases:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
NZD |
NZIER Business Confidence (Q4) |
15% |
|
-14% |
|
||
CNY |
Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Dec) |
10.0% |
10.2% |
10.2% |
|
||
CNY |
GDP (YoY) (Q4) |
6.8% |
6.8% |
6.9% |
|
||
CNY |
GDP (QoQ) (Q4) |
1.6% |
1.7% |
1.8% |
|
||
CNY |
Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) |
5.9% |
6.0% |
6.2% |
|
||
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) (Dec) |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
||
GBP |
CPI (MoM) (Dec) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
||
GBP |
CPI (YoY) (Dec) |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
||
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) (Dec) |
-0.8% |
-1.7% |
-1.6% |
|
||
EUR |
German ZEW Current Conditions (Jan) |
59.7 |
54.0 |
55.0 |
|
||
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
10.2 |
8.2 |
16.1 |
|
||
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) |
0.9% |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
||
EUR |
CPI (MoM) (Dec) |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
||
EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Dec) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
||
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
22.7 |
27.9 |
33.9 |
|
||
GBP |
BoE Gov Carney Speaks |
|
|
|
|
||
CAD |
Foreign Securities Purchases (Nov) |
|
12.10B |
22.08B |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Wednesday January 20, 2016
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
USD |
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Nov) |
|
|
-16.6B |
|
||
NZD |
CPI (YoY) (Q4) |
|
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
||
NZD |
CPI (QoQ) (Q4) |
|
-0.2% |
0.3% |
|
||
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
|
|
-0.8% |
|
||
EUR |
German PPI (MoM) (Dec) |
|
-0.4% |
-0.2% |
|
||
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov) |
|
2.1% |
2.4% |
|
||
GBP |
Claimant Count Change (Dec) |
|
2.5K |
3.9K |
|
||
GBP |
Unemployment Rate (Nov) |
|
5.2% |
5.2% |
|
||
USD |
Building Permits (Dec) |
|
1.200M |
1.282M |
|
||
USD |
Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) |
|
2.1% |
2.0% |
|
||
USD |
CPI (MoM) (Dec) |
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
||
USD |
Housing Starts (Dec) |
|
1.200M |
1.173M |
|
||
CAD |
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Nov) |
|
0.5% |
-1.1% |
|
||
CAD |
Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Nov) |
|
0.5% |
-0.6% |
|
||
CAD |
Interest Rate Decision |
|
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
||
CAD |
BoC Gov Poloz Speaks |
|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time and Country
Jan 20 11:03 Sweden SEK 4bn 1% Nov 2026 Bond
Jan 20 11:30 UK GBP 4bn 1.5% Jan 2021 Gilt
Jan 21 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones
Jan 21 10:50 France Holds bond auction
Jan 21 19:00 US Holds 10-year TIPS auction
Jan 21 17:20 Italy Details of CTZ/linker auction on Jan 28
Jan 21 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on 28 Jan
Jan 21 n/a US Details of 2-yr note auction on Jan 26
Jan 25 11:30 Germany EUR 1.5bn Jan 2017 Bubill
Jan 25 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Jan 27
Jan 25 17:20 Italy Details of BTP/CCTeus on 28 Jan
Jan 26 11:10 Italy Holds CTZ/linker bond auction
Jan 26 n/a US Holds 2-year note auction
Jan 27 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction
Jan 27 11:30 Germany EUR 1bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund
Jan 27 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on 03 Feb
Jan 27 n/a US Holds 2-year FRN auction
Jan 27 n/a US Holds 5-year note auction
Jan 28 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction
Jan 28 11:10 Italy Holds BTP/CCTeus auction
Jan 28 n/a US Holds 7-year note auction
Feb 02 n/a UK Details of Gilt auctions on Feb 09 & 11