Oil Fundamental Forecast – July 26, 2016

Crude Oil fell another 27 cents to trade at 43.92 and reaming bearish as inventory data and demand outlook remain weak. Brent Oil fell 26 cents to 45.83. The supply glut fears intensified due to the recently released inventory report by the Energy Information Administration (or EIA). According to the weekly inventory data released by the EIA, the crude oil inventories reached 519.5 million barrels, which is high for this time of the year.

According to the data released by Baker Hughes on July 22, the oil rig count moved up by 14, reaching 371 rigs. This was the seventh increase in the last eight weeks. This is the fourth consecutive rise for the oil rig count, and it triggered concerns about the chances of an increase in domestic crude oil production amid the supply glut.

Oil prices settled lower on Friday, losing 4 percent on the week, after the fourth weekly rise in the U.S. oil rig count added to worries about a global crude glut. Crude futures were already down, with Brent at two-month lows, on fears of more Iraqi supply before a report by energy services firm Baker Hughes showed U.S. oil drillers added 14 rigs this week to bring the total rig count to 371.

“The oil complex is already struggling with oversupply issues. More than ample inventories and upcoming refinery turnarounds and maintenance have the bulls on the defensive,” said Pete Donovan, broker at Liquidity Energy in New York. “An increase in rigs is the last thing they need.”

The dollar’s rally to a more than four-month high also hurt demand for greenback-denominated oil among holders of the euro and other currencies.

Iraq’s oil exports were expected to rise in July, according to loading data and an industry source. If confirmed, it would put OPEC’s No. 2 producer back on track for supply growth after a two-month lag.

“These large and increasing stocks will not only up the likelihood of additional commercial short hedges, but will also encourage the commercials to defer long hedges,” said Jim Ritterbusch of Chicago-based oil markets consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates.

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date/Time Country Type

Jul 25 11:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn Jul 2017 Bubill

Jul 25 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Jul 26 11:10 Italy Holds zero-coupon/BTP€i auction

Jul 27 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund

Jul 28 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction