Oil Fundamental Forecast – July 27, 2016

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Updated: Jul 26, 2016, 08:10 UTC

Crude Oil is up 10 cents as trader bought the cheap commodity as the greenback eased off highs but there is no support for oil currently with the world

Oil Fundamental Forecast – July 27, 2016

Crude Oil is up 10 cents as trader bought the cheap commodity as the greenback eased off highs but there is no support for oil currently with the world glut growing bigger by the day. Brent Oil added 16 cents to 45.29. Oil prices fell nearly 3 percent, with U.S. crude slipping to a 3-month low on Monday on rising concerns that a global glut of crude and refined products would pressure markets, delaying a long-anticipated rebalance in the market. Oil prices edged away from three-month lows on Tuesday, supported by a weaker dollar, but concerns of ongoing oversupply weighed on markets and many traders are raising their bets on further price falls.

Hedge funds have been liquidating bullish positions in crude futures and options, putting downward pressure on oil prices in recent weeks. Now the liquidation of old long positions, which profit from rising prices, is being replaced by the establishment of short positions, which make money out of lower prices, as fund managers try to capitalize on the downward cycle in prices.

Data from market intelligence firm Genscape pointing to an inventory rise of 1.1 million barrels at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery base for U.S. crude futures in the week to July 22 weighed on crude prices, said traders who saw the numbers.

A massive overhang in refined products, particularly gasoline, despite forecasts for record U.S. summer driving has made investors less optimistic about a quick market rebalancing.

“We’ve got gasoline stocks that are through the roof … And you have the specter of turnaround season not too far in the horizon,” Robert Yawger, senior vice president of energy futures at Mizuho Securities USA said.

He also cut his price target on U.S. crude to $40 from $45 a barrel.

The threat of resurgent U.S. oil production with the rise of drilling rigs and a strong dollar added to the gloomy sentiment in the market, traders and brokers said.

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Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Country	Name	Volatility	Previous
AUD	Consumer Price Index (QoQ)	3	-0.2
AUD	RBA trimmed mean CPI (YoY)	3	1.7
AUD	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	3	1.3
AUD	RBA trimmed mean CPI (QoQ)	3	0.2
EUR	Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey	2	10.1
GBP	Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	2	2
GBP	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	2	0.4
USD	Durable Goods Orders	3	-2.2
USD	Durable Goods Orders Core	3	-0.3
USD	Pending Home Sales (YoY)	2	2.4
USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM)	2	-3.7
USD	Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement	3
USD	Fed Interest Rate Decision	3	0.5