Oil Fundamental Forecast – May 25, 2016

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Published: May 24, 2016, 10:49 UTC

Crude Oil continued to edge off of last week’s highs to trade at 47.94 down by 14 cents while Brent Oil dipped 22 cents to 48.13. Oil prices regained

Crude Oil continued to edge off of last week’s highs to trade at 47.94 down by 14 cents while Brent Oil dipped 22 cents to 48.13. Oil prices regained ground somewhat yesterday after a report showed that crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub fell by about 979,000 barrels over the week to May 20. However, rising demand for the US dollar across the board on increasing June Fed rate hike expectations continues to weigh on the black gold. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive in other currencies. Looking ahead, all eyes remain on the June 2 OPEC meeting in Vienna, with markets almost pricing-out a coordinated output freeze plan.

Crude oil futures retreated as a top Iranian oil official said the country would not join a proposed freeze on oil output by the world´s largest producers of crude until its exports had recovered to the levels seen before economic sanctions were placed on Tehran, in response to its nuclear arms program.

Rokneddin Javadi, the managing director of the National Iranian Oil Co., said the country´s exports would not surpass the 2.2m barrel a day mark until the middle of summer, the Mehr news agency reported.

Iranian exports jumped by over 40% to reach 2m barrels a day in April, according to the International Energy Association.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-1.140M
NZD	Trade Balance (YoY) (Apr)		-3,940M	-3,380M
NZD	Trade Balance (MoM) (Apr)		60M	117M
AUD	Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q1)		-1.5%	-3.6%
EUR	EU Finance Ministers Meeting
USD	Goods Trade Balance (Apr)		-60.10B	-56.90B
USD	FOMC Member Harker Speaks
USD	Services PMI (May)		53.1	52.8
CAD	Interest Rate Decision		0.50%	0.50%
USD	Crude Oil Inventories			1.310M
USD	FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
USD	FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks