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Oil Fundamental Forecast – May 30, 2016

By:
Barry Norman

Crude Oil dipped 36 cents as the US dollar continued to rally and traders booked profits ahead of next week’s producers meeting.  Brent Oil gave up 51

Oil Fundamental Forecast – May 30, 2016

Crude Oil dipped 36 cents as the US dollar continued to rally and traders booked profits ahead of next week’s producers meeting.  Brent Oil gave up 51 cents to 49.08. Attention continues to focus primarily on unexpected production losses -Nigeria, Canada, which have reached a five-year high. In addition, this market is also affected by the continuing fall in oil extraction in the U.S. and the worsening economic (and political) situation in Venezuela. Although last week’s figures on the activity of U.S. oil companies showed somewhat surprisingly its stability, the declining trend in crude oil production in the U.S. cannot in itself be reversed by this. Nevertheless, the current higher oil prices are also reflected in the increase in hedging on the part of oil companies and indicate that the production downturn might be moving at a slower pace than expected.

Developments on the demand side of the market are currently given little attention. Production losses in Nigeria and lower crude oil extraction in Libya are clearly helping to tighten up the conditions on the Brent North Sea oil market. On the other hand, however, there have been reports that large quantities of crude oil are stored in tankers in Singapore, indicating weaker demand for crude oil in Asia. The same is true for the U.S.

During the next week the market will be following events at the OPEC meeting, as well as the usual trends. Following the April meeting of producers in Doha, however, we do not expect any agreement to be reached to limit or fix crude oil production. The meeting is thus “merely” a risk event.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

crude oil

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, May 30, 2016

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
    United Kingdom – May Bank Holiday
    United States – Memorial Day
  JPY Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)     -1.1%  
  AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)     8.9%  
  AUD Company Gross Operating Profits     -2.8%  
  CAD Current Account (Q1)     -15.4B  
  CAD RMPI (MoM) (Apr)     4.5%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

May 30 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

Jun 01 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Jun 01 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Apr 2021 Bobl

Jun 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt

Jun 01 17:20 Sweden Announces details of bond auction on Jun 08

Jun 02 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Jun 02 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Jun 02 11:50 France Holds bond auction

 

 

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