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Oil Monthly Fundamental – April 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Apr 1, 2016, 04:02 UTC

Crude Oil saw a monthly gain over 11% at 38.26 while Brent Oil climbed 9% to 40.16 as hopes of a production cut in April will support prices and reduce

Oil Monthly Fundamental – April 2016

Crude Oil saw a monthly gain over 11% at 38.26 while Brent Oil climbed 9% to 40.16 as hopes of a production cut in April will support prices and reduce global inventories. Oil prices were steady to firmer on track to their largest monthly gain in almost a year and also a quarterly rise, helped by a weak dollar and data showing a drawdown in crude stocks at the U.S. futures delivery hub.

But concerns that a proposed production freeze will barely make a difference to the global oil glut kept a lid on the market’s upside, some traders and analysts said.

Crude futures also appeared to have overextended gains with a 50 percent rally since mid-February on the prospect of an agreement among the world’s largest producers to keep oil output at January’s levels, despite little improvement in fundamentals.

Data from market intelligence firm Genscape showed a 807,496-barrel drawdown in stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub for U.S. crude futures in the week to March 29, traders said.

Inventories at Cushing have receded from record highs for two consecutive weeks, with U.S. government data on Wednesday showing a 272,000-barrel drawdown in the week ending March 25.

Total U.S. crude stocks, however, rose 2.3 million barrels last week to 534.8 million barrels, a record high for a seventh straight week.

OPEC crude output rose in March to 32.47 million barrels per day from 32.37 million bpd in February, a Reuters survey said.

In a separate Reuters poll, oil analysts raised their average price forecasts for 2016 for the first time in 10 months but cautioned the rally could fade near term.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur. Event Forecast Previous  
Friday, April 1, 2016
    JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index   8 12  
    CNY Manufacturing PMI (Mar)   49.3 49.0  
    CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar)   48.2 48.0  
    EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Mar)   50.4 50.4  
    GBP Manufacturing PMI (Mar)   51.2 50.8  
    USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)   205K 242K  
    USD Unemployment Rate (Mar)   4.9% 4.9%  
Monday, April 4, 2016
  China – Tomb Sweeping Day
    AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)     0.3%  
    GBP Construction PMI (Mar)     54.2  
Tuesday, April 5, 2016
    AUD Interest Rate Decision (Apr)     2.00%  
    GBP Construction PMI (Mar)     54.2  
    GBP Services PMI (Mar)     52.7  
    USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)   54.1 53.4  
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
    GBP Services PMI (Mar)     52.7  
    CAD Ivey PMI (Mar)     53.4  
Friday, April 8, 2016
    GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM)     0.7%  
    CAD Employment Change (Mar)     -2.3K  
Monday, April 11, 2016
  CNY CPI (YoY) (Mar)     2.3%  
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
  GBP CPI (YoY) (Mar)     0.3%  
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
    CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Mar)     32.59B  
    USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)     -0.1%  
    CAD Interest Rate Decision     0.50%  
Thursday, April 14, 2016
    AUD Employment Change (Mar)     0.3K  
    EUR CPI (YoY) (Mar)        
    GBP Interest Rate Decision (Apr)     0.50%  
Friday, April 15, 2016
    CNY GDP (YoY) (Q1)     6.8%  
    CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar)     5.4%  
Monday, April 18, 2016
  NZD CPI (QoQ) (Q1)     -0.5%  
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
  EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment     4.3  
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
    GBP Claimant Count Change (Mar)     -18.0K  
Monday, April 25, 2016
Friday, April 29, 2016

 

 

 

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