Outlook and Recommendation Crude Oil reversed and gained significantly at the end of the week on hopes of production cuts from OPEC and Russia, but there
Crude Oil reversed and gained significantly at the end of the week on hopes of production cuts from OPEC and Russia, but there is no guarantee the possible talks will lead anywhere. Crude oil prices are up 4.88% on the week but down almost 9% on the month. Oil closed at 33.76 after touching lows at $29. Brent Oil closed at 35.91 rising from $30 this month.
The great commodity slump has entered a new and dangerous stage, with two of the globe’s most important raw materials diving to fresh depths on growing fears of a Chinese slowdown.
Oil plunged to its lowest point since 2003 as West Texas intermediate (WTI), the North American benchmark, declined to $29 a barrel. It has lost 15 per cent of its value in the first few days of
Mounting anxiety over China is to blame for much of the recent havoc in commodity prices. The Asian giant’s frenetic growth propelled the world’s booming demand for raw materials over the past decade and its deceleration has already inflicted major damage on commodity prices.
The fear now is that even more losses may lie ahead if China devalues its currency as a way to make its exports more attractive and stem the flight of capital out of the country.
The jump came after supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration revealed domestic production has edged lower. A report on Reuters that Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will discuss a possible cut to output also provided a boost to oil prices. However, other reports said Russia had no plans of cooperating with OPEC.
In other oil-related news, Royal Dutch Shell shareholders on Wednesday approved the company’s proposed $70 billion takeover of BG Group shareholders will vote Thursday on the takeover. BG shares turned higher by 3.5%. They had been lower after a ratings downgrade to neutral at Credit Suisse, which cited valuation as a factor. Shell shares closed up 2.9%.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Date | Currency | Forecast | Previous | ||||||||
Feb 1 | CNY | Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | 49.7 | |||||||
CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI | 48.1 | 48.2 | ||||||||
GBP | Manufacturing PMI | 51.8 | 51.9 | ||||||||
USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 48.6 | 48.2 | ||||||||
Feb 2 | AUD | Cash Rate | 2.00% | 2.00% | |||||||
AUD | RBA Rate Statement | ||||||||||
GBP | Construction PMI | 57.5 | 57.8 | ||||||||
NZD | Employment Change q/q | 0.8% | -0.4% | ||||||||
NZD | Unemployment Rate | 6.1% | 6.0% | ||||||||
Feb 3 | AUD | Building Approvals m/m | 4.6% | -12.7% | |||||||
AUD | Trade Balance | -2.45B | -2.91B | ||||||||
GBP | Services PMI | 55.4 | 55.5 | ||||||||
USD | ADP Non-Farm | 191K | 257K | ||||||||
USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing | 55.2 | 55.3 | ||||||||
Feb 4 | GBP | BOE Inflation Report | |||||||||
GBP | Monetary Policy Summary | ||||||||||
GBP | Official Bank Rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | ||||||||
USD | Unemployment Claims | 286K | 278K | ||||||||
Feb 5 | AUD | RBA Policy Statement | |||||||||
AUD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.4% | 0.4% | ||||||||
CAD | Employment Change | 22.8K | |||||||||
CAD | Trade Balance | -2.0B | |||||||||
CAD | Unemployment Rate | 7.1% | |||||||||
USD | Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.0% | ||||||||
USD | Non-Farm Employment | 192K | 292K | ||||||||
USD | Unemployment Rate | 5.0% | 5.0% | ||||||||
Feb 8 | CNY | Trade Balance | |||||||||
Feb 10 | GBP | Manufacturing Production m/m | |||||||||
Feb 11 | USD | Unemployment Claims | |||||||||
Feb 12 | EUR | German Prelim GDP q/q | |||||||||
USD | Core Retail Sales m/m | ||||||||||
USD | Retail Sales m/m | ||||||||||
USD | Prelim UoM Consumer | ||||||||||
Feb 14 | JPY | Prelim GDP q/q | -0.2% | ||||||||
Feb 15 | NZD | Retail Sales q/q | |||||||||
Feb 16 | AUD | Monetary Policy Meeting | |||||||||
NZD | Inflation Expectations q/q | ||||||||||
GBP | CPI y/y | ||||||||||
EUR | German ZEW Economic | ||||||||||
CAD | Manufacturing Sales m/m | ||||||||||
NZD | GDT Price Index | ||||||||||
Feb 17 | GBP | Average Earnings Index | |||||||||
GBP | Claimant Count Change | ||||||||||
USD | Building Permits | ||||||||||
USD | PPI m/m | ||||||||||
USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes | ||||||||||
NZD | PPI Input q/q | ||||||||||
Feb 18 | AUD | Employment Change | |||||||||
AUD | Unemployment Rate | ||||||||||
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USD | Philly Fed Manufacturing | ||||||||||
USD | Unemployment Claims | ||||||||||
Feb 19 | GBP | Retail Sales m/m | |||||||||
CAD | Core CPI m/m | ||||||||||
CAD | Core Retail Sales m/m | ||||||||||
USD | CPI m/m | ||||||||||
USD | Core CPI m/m | ||||||||||
Feb 23 | EUR | German Ifo Business | |||||||||
GBP | Inflation Report Hearings | ||||||||||
USD | CB Consumer Confidence | ||||||||||
Feb 25 | AUD | Private Capital | |||||||||
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USD | Unemployment Claims | ||||||||||
NZD | Trade Balance | ||||||||||
Feb 26 | USD | Prelim GDP q/q | |||||||||