Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis – February 8-12, 2016 -Forecast

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Published: Feb 6, 2016, 05:59 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: Crude Oil fell 7.79% for the week as traders played pump and dump gains this week sending prices up and down on a

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil fell 7.79% for the week as traders played pump and dump gains this week sending prices up and down on a roller coaster. Crude ended the week at 31.01 while Brent oil declined 1.76% to trade at 34.13. Oil prices ended the week lower in choppy trading on Friday, snapping two weeks of gains, as a frenzy of speculation about a possible deal between top oil producers clashed with concerns about a growing supply glut.

After a volatile week’s trading, much is riding on Sunday’s meeting between Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino and his Saudi counterpart Ali al-Naimi in Riyadh, after Del Pino’s discussions with the Qatari and Omani ministers this week.

As cash-strapped Venezuela tries to rally support for concerted action between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to boost prices, Sunday’s meeting is seen “make or break” for a possible deal, said Tim Evans, energy futures specialist at Citi Futures.

Adding to this week’s rollercoaster ride in prices was the sudden liquidation of a $600 million leveraged fund bet on falling prices.

Investors were also weighing a string of conflicting indicators on Friday as the dollar recovered some of the ground lost over the past two days while investors continued to fret about growing oversupply, with U.S. inventories hitting record highs last week amid concerns about a slowing global economy.

The pickup in the market earlier this week was not really warranted, Gene McMillian, senior analyst at Tradition Energy said, referring to the market seemingly brushing aside extremely bearish inventory data earlier this week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Major Economic Events for the week:


Date	Currency		Forecast
Feb 7	JPY	Current Account	1.59T
Feb 8	CAD	Building Permits m/m
	USD	Mortgage Delinquencies
Feb 9	AUD	NAB Business Confidence
	GBP	Trade Balance	-10.4B
	USD	JOLTS Job Openings	5.54M
	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Feb 10	GBP	Manufacturing Production m/m	0.0%
Feb 11	CAD	NHPI m/m	0.3%
	USD	Unemployment Claims	287K
Feb 12	AUD	Home Loans m/m	2.9%
	EUR	German Prelim GDP q/q	0.3%
	EUR	Flash GDP q/q	0.3%
	USD	Core Retail Sales m/m	0.0%
	USD	Retail Sales m/m	0.1%
	USD	Import Prices m/m	-1.4%
	USD	UoM Consumer Sentiment	92.6
Feb 13